Gunnison

The winds have slowed and the loading of leeward aspects has ended.  We are two days out from any freshly observed avalanches.  It is unlikely for you to trigger an avalanche, however, drifted northerly slopes at upper elevations harbor weak snow near the ground.  Continue to practice safe travel techniques and consider the consequences of triggering a small avalanche in isolated spots or extreme terrain. 

Today's forecast brings about a few changes.  First, the Wind Slab problem has been removed from the list.  Light winds on Thursday brought an end to the loading of leeward aspects.  The last avalanches were observed on Wednesday the 25th (these avalanches likely failed the night or day previous).  Even though this problem is no longer on the list, you should continue to make thoughtful considerations of drifted alpine features.  Take the time to dig or poke around in a safe, representative spot before you commit to avalanche terrain at upper elevations.  Observers noted some light faceting at the old interface beneath the last round of snow (observation 1, observation 2).  The slightly weaker snow beneath surface slabs could keep human triggered avalanches a possibility even though they are unlikely.  Take any warning signs like cracking as a sign of instability. 

The Persistent Slab problem remains listed because it is hard to ignore the clear weak snow at the ground with slabs resting above.  Forecasters have been discussing and providing imagery of what this structure looks like for over a week (ob 1, ob 2, ob 3).  Signs of instability, like avalanches and collapsing, have been scant in the CBAC forecast area.  You need to find a slab and a continuous weak layer to potentially find trouble.  The necessary ingredients are isolated across the landscape, but there are probably a number of slopes that fit the bill.  You can be confident that slopes facing north and northeast are the only places to trigger one of these avalanches that breaks at the ground; the harder part of the equation is which upper elevation, northerly slopes have the full ingredient list.  Sometimes it's easier to choose terrain based on consequences.  Small avalanches in exposed or extreme terrain carry heavy consequences if you were to take a ride into cliffs, rocks. or trees.  This problem squarely fits into the unlikely category, but not impossible.  Continue to use safe travel techniques such as exposing only one person at a time to a given slope and avoid features where consequences are magnified by terrain traps.