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Although the danger is low, hazards do exist. Soft, poorly consolidated snow may release unexpectedly at lower elevations, particularly near rocks. Overhanging cornices might also present a hazard as you travel along a ridge or on the slope below.
Avalanche Discussion
Preliminary Report: On Friday, February 28, three snowmobilers were riding near Harts Pass in the East North zone when they triggered a large slab avalanche. Two riders were caught and carried. One rider was fully buried and killed. The other was partially buried and injured. NWAC is working with local avalanche professionals to conduct an investigation. Our deepest condolences to the family, friends, and community. (NE, 6,800ft HS-AM-D2.5-R4-O)
Moving forward, we expect the potential for a minimal refreeze thanks to cloud cover Saturday night. However, temperatures should drop to near freezing during the day on Sunday at 5000 ft. Therefore, we expect manky snow to remain at lower elevations, where chunks of snow falling off steep slopes near warm rocks remain the greatest concern. A combination of supportable and breakable crusts is likely at middle and upper elevations. These crusts may not soften during the day on Sunday with clouds, some light snowfall at times, and a breeze. Cornices have been mostly trimmed back thanks to the recent heat, but if you find any that are overhanging, they might still be weak. Be mindful of these both as you ascend and as you travel along the ridgeline, where they have a habit of breaking back farther than you expect.
The last major storm system deposited an average of 14" of snow Monday night into Tuesday at middle elevations around Hurricane Ridge. The system arrived with strong winds, creating thicker deposits on some N and E aspects, while ridges often scoured to grass, dirt, or rocks. On N aspects, the post-storm warmup has created 6" of denser (upside down) snow that formed a 1 cm breakable 0.4" crust on top by Saturday. On W-S-E aspects, the upper snowpack is right side up. ONP Rangers reported supportable 1" thick crusts and good corn skiing mid-day on sun-drenched aspects at Hurricane Ridge on Saturday. Rollerball activity stayed at low levels without notable wet loose avalanches Thursday- Saturday despite temperatures remaining above freezing at Hurricane Ridge since 2/26 and reaching 50F on Saturday.
Below the new storm snow, there is a 2/23 rain crust (that is gradually refreezing), a few inches of dense snow below that, and then the 2/22 Atmospheric River (AR) crust. We're continuing to monitor the AR crust, which was reactive to shovel shear tests on Thursday, but we don't expect this to be reactive by Sunday.
You might still see evidence of the avalanche cycle early in the week. An avalanche on a NW aspect on Steeple Rock (photo in the gallery) may have run on the 2/22 interface. The vertical and sharp nature of the flanks suggests that the slab involved moist snow, potentially from warming after the storm. This slab activity could have run down to the 2/22 interface. Three avalanches in N Bowl (size 1.5) show storm-related and potentially wet slab activity associated with Monday's storm. The crowns are filled in to varying degrees, suggesting that they occurred at different phases of the storm cycle.
Share your observations with the community and NWAC. Even if you didn't see an avalanche or a snowpack test, your information is incredibly valuable. Every afternoon, 4-5 NWAC forecasters from around the region meet to discuss the latest snowpack and avalanche observations, and weather forecast to create the next day's avalanche forecast. We look at information from the public, other snow professionals, and weather station data to round out our picture. Share early and often!