Bollettino valanghe

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Pericolo valanghe

Tue
Alta quota
2 · Moderato
Limite del bosco
2 · Moderato
Sotto il limite
2 · Moderato
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In sintesi

The limited overnight freeze has left the snowpack primed for rapid softening. As solar radiation increases today, expect the danger of wet loose avalanches to rise quickly, especially on sheltered east and west-facing slopes. Watch for signs of instability, including recent avalanches, collapsing, rollerballs, and deep wet snow.

Problemi valanghivi

  • Loose Wet

    • Alta quota
    • Limite del bosco
    • Sotto il limite del bosco
    Probabilità
    Possible
    Dimensione
    1–2

    Temperatures over the last week have been well above normal. Last night, temperatures at the Inner Basin SNOTEL site failed to drop below freezing (bottoming out at 37.9°F). However, the upper mountain seems to have approached freezing temperatures, with a low at the top of the Grand Canyon Express of 32.0°F (Top Patrol Weather Station was offline this morning). Keep in mind, the last significant freeze was last Sunday (2/22/26) and the last week we have experienced highs that are 10-20°F above normal. While nightly, wind-driven convection cooling may refreeze the snow surface, this is not equivalent to a proper refreeze of the entire snowpack. The more nights the snowpack remains unfrozen, the more internal heat it retains, significantly increasing the likelihood of wet loose avalanches.

    Small to large (D2) wet loose avalanches will be possible, especially in the mid-afternoon as radiant heating peaks. These wet, loose avalanches occur on the snow surface and usually start as point releases that entrain more snow as they descend the slope.  Today's wet loose avalanches could still knock a skier or rider off their feet. Expect lower-elevation southern and eastern slopes to have the highest likelihood early in the day, with more aspects and higher-elevation slopes becoming more suspect as the day progresses. In addition, pay attention to local terrain features that can increase warming rates (e.g., rocky outcroppings) and affect avalanche danger or the implications of a small avalanche (e.g., terrain traps and cliffs). 

    (3/2/2026)

    Temperatures across the last week at the top of the Grand Canyon Express (elev. 10,800'). 

    Photo: Tanner Porter

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alta quota
    • Limite del bosco
    • Sotto il limite del bosco
    Probabilità
    Unlikely
    Dimensione
    1.5–2.5

    The season's weather has created a complex snowpack that contains several persistent weak-layer problems (1) near-surface facets above and below the Holiday Ice Layer and (2) basal facets, each with its own distribution. Although avalanches on this layer are unlikely due to the localized distribution and sensitivity, if overloaded, this persistent weak layer could facilitate large avalanches. A profile on a northwest aspect yesterday showed propagation (ECTP17, ECTP26) on a layer of facets below the ice crust. Although we are over a week from the last snowfall, backcountry travellers should remain aware of these instabilities.

    The layer of greatest concern is facets above the Holiday Ice Layer. These crystals formed during the January 9th storm, which created facets through diurnal recrystallization (recycled powder), and were then buried by the most recent storm cycle. This layer is distributed widely enough that, on specific slopes, if loaded or triggered, it could result in a large avalanche. This is a classic low-probability, high-consequence scenario. This scenario can be managed through thorough slope assessment, conservative decision-making, or avoiding steep and complex slopes.

    (2/28/2026)

    Larry's Line snowpit. NW aspect at 11,550'. 

    Photo: Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday, moderate winds cooled the high ridgelines, while sheltered solar aspects continued to warm, producing 1–3" of corn on eastern slopes by midday. We expect a similar trend today, though the timing and quality of the surface freeze are less certain due to cooler overnight lows and lingering winds. As temperatures remain high, rapid melting is making travel to and from the Inner Basin increasingly difficult

It's best to dust off your spring travel advice and start early! Bring ski crampons and be off the snow before it turns into deep, wet snow (over boot top).

A brief season rewind: a significant storm impacted the peaks in late November, followed by a generally dry and warm December. This period produced basal facets, although warmer periods moderated facet development. This dry period was followed by two significant rain events over the Holidays, which have plagued the season with the dreadful Holiday Ice Layer (HIL).  Following the Holidays, we have had several smaller storms that fell on top of the HIL, but the snow was often redistributed, stripping windward upper-elevation aspects and leaving the ice crust exposed. In areas with newer snow, subsequent dry conditions have allowed it to facet, creating near-surface facets. These smaller storms were buried by the February storm, creating a complex snowpack that contains two persistent weak-layer problems (e.g., near-surface facets and basal facets), each with its own distribution, and, if overloaded, could facilitate large avalanches. Following this storm, the snowpack has experienced unseasonably warm temperatures and is struggling to adjust, as evidenced by persistent propagation in test pits. 

In a short timeframe, we’ve transitioned from winter storm conditions to late spring, and it's only March 2nd. Conditions vary considerably across the forecast area right now, increasing uncertainty. It’s best to factor that into your tour plans by creating options and building in wide safety margins. There are reports of good soft skiing above treeline. These reports with any information are helpful to us. Please submit them here. 

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