Northern New Mexico

It's possible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche at upper elevations on northerly through east aspects where 1 to 3-foot slabs rest on top of facted weak layers and depth hoar.  Triggering an avalanche has become more stubborn, but the consequences remain high if you do trigger a slide, as it potentially could take with it most of the season's snowpack.

At lower elevations, most slopes have little snow on them, with the surface turning to crusts over the last two weeks of warm temperatures. Ground hazards and difficult skiing are the biggest challenges at these lower elevations. 

It's a cold start to the morning with temperatures in the single digits. Yesterday's system brought some clouds, wind, and a bit of graupel, but didn't bring any measurable snow for us. Temperatures will warm today as ridging builds over NM. Warm temperatures over the last two weeks have wreaked havoc on our shallow snowpack.  A lot of the solar aspects and lower elevation terrain have melted back to bare ground, and crusts can be found even on northerly aspects up to 12,000'. 

For most of the terrain, the avalanche danger is Low. Ground hazards and difficult riding conditions will be the biggest concerns. At upper elevations on northerly and east aspects is where the persistent slab avalanche problem continues to linger. As we push further away from the last significant loading event, triggering an avalanche has become more stubborn, but not impossible. Weak layers near the ground are still easy to impact in travels in the overall shallow snowpack we currently have. These slopes will look the most enticing to want to ski and ride, as they'll be the deepest and have the only bits of real, continuous snow. A probe pole or taking the time to dig a pit to see if the slope you're choosing to ride has this strong over weak layering is never a bad idea. 

The outlook for us in northern NM doesn't look great as long-range models show more warming and no significant snow in the forecast.  We've only picked up 76 inches of total snowfall this season, and it doesn't look like we'll be seeing a miracle March.  Skiing and riding conditions are not great right now, and I'd assume most people are enjoying other outdoor activities as there haven't been too many tracks in the backcountry. There's at least some positive news of the potential moderate to strong El Niño forming by the end of 2026.  With what looks to be back-to-back historically bad years, much of the focus for NM heading into spring will be on fire danger and low water flowing in our rivers and acequias. 

With low snow and no moisture in the forecast for the foreseeable future. We'll be shutting down the avalanche center with no active forecasts after this weekend. We'll update if a storm moves in through the middle of April.