Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

The avalanche danger will rise to MODERATEas sustained sunshine melts snow surfaces throughout the day. Small loose snow avalanches will become easier to trigger throughout the day on steep slopes facing the sun where the snow surface feels moist. These can start small but gain speed and size as they move downhill. An early start and early exit is today's best strategy. Triggering a large avalanche failing on deep weak layers is unlikely, but so is your chance of surviving one. 

Timing and situational awareness will be your two keys to a safe day in the mountains today.  Unimpeded, sustained sunshine will soak the hills all day for the first time since recent storms. While the morning will start out cool with a decent refreeze in most locations, as the day turns to afternoon expect wet loose issues to become increasingly likely. 15-20 inches of snow from recent storms sits on top of various crusts. As the sun melts the upper portion of the snowpack, this water will percolate down towards this crust, making it a slick sliding surface for the new snow on top. These wet avalanches can start small, but quickly gain speed and mass as they move downhill. In steep terrain, these can easily knock you off your feet and have significant consequences. While wind slabs have proved to be stubborn to unreactive in recent days, pockets of wind-drifted snow can still provide snow to move downslope if hit at the right trigger point on convexities and near rocks. Large destructive slides running on deep weak layers have become unlikely, but not impossible. These are most likely in very steep, rocky, alpine terrain.

Timing: You've heard the old saying that "timing is everything." Shakespeare didn't know it when he first wrote this in 'Julius Ceasar', but he also was describing how to manage wet snow issues. Today is the day to start early and end early before this problem is at its worst. You can significantly decrease your chances of dealing with wet snow issues by being off of and out from under steep slopes that face the sun before the afternoon. The later you're on one of these slopes, the more likely it is you encounter a wet loose avalanche. 

Situational Awareness: While this component is always key to moving through the mountains, it will be particularly helpful today. Situational awareness involves three key parts:(1) Noticing the elements in your environment. What aspect are you on? How steep is the slope? Is the snow you are moving through moist? Is it just the very surface that's wet, or is moisture inches down into the snowpack? Am I sinking farther down into the snow than I was earlier? What does the terrain above me look like? Are there natural avalanches running nearby? Is the snow I'm moving through stiffened by the wind?(2) Comprehending what they mean and how they relate to one another. If the snow is wet, then it's more likely for me to trigger a wet avalanche. If I'm sinking far down into the snowpack, there must be a lot of melting of the upper snowpack going on — this means I can trigger a slide more easily. If I'm below rocky outcroppings, cliffs, or loaded start zones, then I need to be even more concerned about the snow above me as the snow I am moving through. (3) Projecting their future states.  Will the current conditions warrant enough of a window for me to accomplish this safely? Or do I think the snow is reaching a critical point where wet slides are about to run? If I choose to go to the top of my objective, will I be able to manage wet loose slides on my descent?

Keep these two key components at the forefront of your mind as you head out into the sunny, blue-skied mountains this morning. Check in with yourself, your partners, the snow, and your watch — then check in again. Set a turn around time and stick to it. Enjoy the day, get some nice turns, and let us know what you see out there.