The timing and track of the incoming storm is uncertain.
Anticipate danger ratings to rise Tuesday, likely culminating in avalanche control with explosives tomorrow afternoon.
A persistent weak layer of surface hoar and/or sun crust sits 50-80cm down, depending on wind loading and aspect. As temps rise and snowload increases, this layer may become reactive in areas where it has not previously slid.
New snow covers surface hoar (2-4mm) near Treeline and below in sheltered areas, sun crust on steep solar aspects and a faceted interface everywhere else. Though likely to be small, it doesn't take a large slide to bury a person in a terrain trap.
As the snow accumulates and temperatures warm, expect the reactivity of the storm slabs to increase, especially where loaded by the moderate to strong SW winds. Currently there is plenty of new snow available for wind transport.
Conflicting weather models are uncertain with snowfall amounts/winds, but agree that a warming trend is here until Thurs
Tonight: Cloudy, Alp low -5*C, gusty strong SW winds
Tues: Flurries, 10cm, Alp high -3*C, FZL 1800m, mod/ gusty extreme SW winds
Wed: Sun and cloud, isolated flurries, Alp high -5*C, FZL 1500m, light to mod gusty SW winds
25-30cm of storm snow overlies a facet layer, small surface hoar in sheltered areas Treeline and below, and a sun crust on steep solar aspects. The Feb 15 surface hoar/sun crust is down 50-80cm and has not been reactive in tests the last few days, but may re-awaken with the new load and warming temps.
Several natural avalanches were detected in the hwy corridor off Mts Tupper and Macdonald early Monday morning.
A skier triggered sz 2 in the Connaught Path Sunday shows the new snow is not yet bonded to the underlying bed surface.
A field team in the Fidelity area was able to ski-cut short rolls and "pop" out small 20-30cm storm slabs.
