Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns
Pericolo valanghe
In sintesi
The snowpack will be cold and solidly frozen this morning. The likelihood of small wet snow avalanches will gradually increase as the day warms up and the sun melts the snow surface. Move to a colder slope if you're finding a thick pile of slushy snow at the surface this afternoon.
Avalanche Discussion
Skies cleared and mountain temperatures dropped into the low to mid teens F last night, allowing the snow surface to freeze solidly. Because of this, large avalanches are unlikely today. Here are a few things to have in your mind as you travel in the mountains:
WET SNOW: It is springtime so we are thinking about wet avalanches. Cold temperatures and clear skies last night helped produce a thick crust at the snow surface. As the sun heats up and melts this crust, small wet snow avalanches will come on the menu. The combination of cool temperatures, a light breeze, and some cloud cover may prevent slopes from softening much in the alpine today, but low and middle elevation terrain will be much warmer. If you find yourself sinking past your boot tops in wet, slushy snow you'll want to find a colder place to play.
DRY SNOW: If you head into upper elevation terrain you will find a much colder, dryer snowpack. Yesterday's storm brought just a dusting of snow to this zone, but you may find some small, lingering wind slabs from earlier this week. These can knock you off your feet and send you for a ride in unpleasant terrain. The big warm-up this week significantly improved the stability of our lingering persistent weak layers, but I haven't written them off entirely. If we received a report about a large avalanche it would likely involve a dense slab failing on a crust+facet combination in the upper few feet of the snowpack on a very steep, alpine slope.
CORNICES: The snowpack is around 150+% of average. The massive cornices that typically form along ridgelines are even bigger than in a typical year. We have yet to see a widespread shedding of these cornices. Warm temperatures and sunshine cause these beasts to sag and deform, and they will eventually detach from the ridgelines they cling to. Limit the amount of time you spend underneath these giants, and travel well back from their edges. Cornices behave unpredictably, give them a wide berth.
This is a great time to be thinking about risk homeostasis. I know, that's a big word before the coffee kicks in, but the concept is simple and useful. We get accustomed to a certain amount of risk and when conditions become more or less dangerous we change our behavior. When the avalanche danger drops we are often drawn towards bigger terrain. In that sort of terrain, the outcome of triggering a small slide that knocks you off your feet can be severe. If you are pushing into steeper, higher consequence terrain, don't turn your avalanche brain off. Spending a few minutes this morning making a plan for your day and talking with your partners about the hazards you might encounter. Pay attention to the snow you are moving through, carry your avalanche rescue gear, and don't be afraid to speak up if you don't like the situation you are in. Take advantage of the beautiful weather and excellent snow coverage, but make returning home safely at the end of the day your ultimate priority. See you out there, don't be afraid to say hi.