Bollettino valanghe

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Pericolo valanghe

Tue
Alta quota
3 · Marcato
Limite del bosco
3 · Marcato
Sotto il limite
3 · Marcato
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In sintesi

New snow and strong winds have created dangerous avalanche conditions. Human-triggered avalanches are likely and natural avalanches are possible.  Newly formed storm slabs and continued loading from strong winds are going to stress a shallow and weak faceted snowpack.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes over 30 degrees, giving runnouts wide berths as it's possible to remotely trigger an avalanche from the flats below.  Loud audible collapses and shooting cracks are warning signs that you've found unstable snow.  Although it's possible to trigger an avalanche in the new snow, expect that an avalanche will most likely fail on deeper buried persistent weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche and taking with it most of the season's snowpack. 

Problemi valanghivi

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alta quota
    • Limite del bosco
    • Sotto il limite del bosco
    Probabilità
    Likely
    Dimensione
    1–2

    Snowfall totals over the last 4 days are 18 - 22 inches with a little under 2" of SWE.  New snow and moderate to strong winds have loaded slopes stressing the shallow faceted weak snowpack that existed before this storm. Stiffer more continuous slabs across slopes will allow avalanches to break wider than you might expect across terrain features.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes over 30 degrees, giving avalanche runouts wide berths as we do expect to see natural avalanches with this storm.  These types of conditions lend themselves to remotely triggering avalanches from the flats below.  If you do trigger an avalanche, there is a good possibility that it will fail on deeper buried weak layers creating a large and destructive avalanche.   

    A weak shallow snowpack that fully faceted with depth hoar near the ground existed before Sunday's significant storm. 1 to 3-foot storm slabs now rest on top of this weak faceted snowpack.

    Photo: Andy Bond (1/4/2024)

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alta quota
    • Limite del bosco
    • Sotto il limite del bosco
    Probabilità
    Likely
    Dimensione
    1–2

    Heavy snowfall and moderate to strong winds have created dangerous storm slabs on all elevations and aspects.  It's possible that you can trigger a storm slab avalanche within the storm snow or at the old snow interface that was primarily near surface facets.  There's also the possibility that a storm slab avalanche will eventually step down into deeper weak layers near the ground creating a larger more destructive avalanche.   Winds will be increasing today out of the NW and able to load different aspects than the SW winds that accompanied the bulk of the snowfall on Sunday.   

    Moderate to strong winds and heavy snowfall have built storm slabs at all elevations. Watch for shooting cracks on the surface as this is an indication of unstable snow.

    Photo: Andy Bond (1/4/24)

Avalanche Discussion

Snowfall is expected to come to an end this morning with storm totals for Sunday's storm at 12 - 14 inches of snow and 1.4" of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE).  This latest storm was accompanied by strong SW winds (20 - 30 mph gusting in the 50's) before backing off some last night.  Winds today are expected to ramp back up out of the NW.  Over the last 4 days, snow totals are 18 - 22 inches of snow with 1.9" of SWE. As the storm makes its exit to the east early this morning, the big weather factor will be moderate to strong NW winds that are forecasted over the next several days. 

Early reports this morning are of natural avalanche activity in steep terrain below treeline and I suspect when there's better visibility, we'll see more of a widespread natural avalanche cycle at upper elevations that most likely occurred during peak instability overnight.  Before this active weather pattern, the snowpack remained shallow (2 - 3 feet) and had become weak and faceted throughout.  Newly formed slabs will be the missing ingredient we've had for slab avalanches and these weak layers to become reactive.  The weak faceted snowpack is going to struggle to hold much weight.  Some slopes have reached a tipping point, but others may just need additional loading (from wind) or you as a trigger to get it it to avalanche.  Unlike other storms this year that have come in with little wind, strong winds during the storm and continued wind will help drive more widespread slab formation across slopes and an increased avalanche danger for the next several days. 

It's been a slow start to the season as skiing and riding have been less than inspiring.  New snow will improve conditions, but unfortunately, that will also come with increased avalanche danger.  Don't get lured into chasing powder on steeper terrain as it's going to take some time for deeper buried weak layers to adjust to this latest round of loading. Sticking to low-angle wind-sheltered terrain without steep slopes above you will provide safer skiing and riding options over the next several days.   

 

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