Island Park

Despite air temperatures dropping below freezing this morning, sunshine this afternoon will warm up the snow some this afternoon keeping the potential for wet loose avalanches. A lingering persistent slab avalanche problem remains on higher elevation shaded slopes even though the likelihood of this problem has dropped.

Today is a little tricky in terms of wet snow because it stayed warm for much of the evening with some rain falling. Cold air this morning will slowly start cooling the snowpack but new snow, acting as a thin blanket, may keep refreezing from happening too quickly. This afternoon will be a tug-of-war between cold air trying to cool the snow and strong sunshine heating the snow (the sun usually wins).

Overall, additional melting of the snowpack that has occurred over the last week has been put on hold, but the snowpack remains damp. Wet loose avalanches remain possible on sunny slopes. In the Bridgers, several inches of new snow should get wet quickly and make very small wet loose slides on sunny slopes.

Complicating things is this annoying persistent slab avalanche problem. Through all the warm weather, north facing slopes at higher elevations still have buried persistent weak layers which have remained dry and cool despite record warmth. The likelihood of triggering one of these slides has decreased significantly, but it can’t be written off. Dig a quick snowpit about 3 feet deep on a representative slope before jumping into shaded terrain.

Recent obs and avalanches: A local guide and regular observer in the northern Bridgers early this week described conditions really well in this observation when he spotted a recent persistent slab avalanche on a north facing slope. Dave checked out a large persistent slab avalanche triggered on Emigrant Peak along with many wet loose and wet slab avalanches from about a week ago. Gallatin NF Snow Rangers conducting a snow survey yesterday spotted a natural avalanche probably from last weekend in Rock Creek in the northern Gallatin Range.

Today the avalanche danger is MODERATE but It’ll be tricky and variable, so stay conservative. Consider getting out tomorrow. Tonight’s very cold temperatures will help lock up the snowpack.

Looking ahead tentatively, there is a major pattern change next week with the chance for some decent snow by Easter weekend. It’s still too early to say for sure, but there may be a couple of powder days still in our future. “So you’re saying there’s a chance”