Bollettino valanghe

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Pericolo valanghe

Sat
Alta quota
3 · Marcato
Limite del bosco
3 · Marcato
Sotto il limite
2 · Moderato
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In sintesi

Snow and increasing temperatures during the day on Friday will begin to overload a weak and complex snowpack. Triggering avalanches in steep terrain will be easy, and avalanches may break down into older snow layers and become larger and more dangerous. Keep your terrain choices simple and stick to low angle slopes.  

Problemi valanghivi

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alta quota
    • Limite del bosco
    • Sotto il limite del bosco
    Probabilità
    Likely
    Dimensione
    1–2

    Light snow overnight on Thursday will intensify on Friday, and snowfall will increase throughout the day. This warm, wet storm will override an unusually cold airmass leading to some uncertainty with precipitation type. We expect the precipitation to stay as snow on the east slopes of the Cascades. However, it wouldn't be a total surprise if we had a changeover to sleet, freezing rain, or just plain rain in areas near the Cascade Crest. Even if we see all snow during this storm, the warming temperatures will result in sensitive storm slabs. Despite the less-than-spectacular precipitation totals forecasted for the East Central Zone, various weak snow surfaces and deeper weak layers make this a particularly dangerous situation with significant uncertainty. Locations in the western portion of the zone may see warmer temperatures and higher total water amounts out of this storm, potentially resulting in larger avalanches. Avoid steep slopes on Friday and be cognisant of steep features above terrain traps such as creeks, holes, or ravines where you could be buried deeply by even a small avalanche. 

    It will be a great day to identify red flag signs of instability, such as recent avalanches or shooting cracks while traveling on low angle slopes. If you observe a change from snow to rain, know that natural avalanches may be increasingly likely, and you should also avoid traveling under steep slopes. 

    (12/20/2022) A  recent storm slab avalanche failed on the Dec 18th interface in Hatchery Creek.

    Photo: Matt Primomo

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alta quota
    • Limite del bosco
    • Sotto il limite del bosco
    Probabilità
    Possible
    Dimensione
    1.5–2.5

    Observations came in on Wednesday from many areas in the mountains surrounding Leavenworth of touchy avalanche conditions, with slabs failing on weak snow on the 12/18 and 12/8 interfaces. This storm will begin to stress these older interfaces and more deeply buried weak layers. Avalanches starting in the new snow storm on Friday could step down to these persistent weak layers. Large, weak faceted crystals from mid-Novemeber 11/22) are still lurking near the base of the snowpack in many locations. While there hasn't been any recent avalanche activity on this layer, persistent weak layers are tricky. There is a possibility for additional stress from new snow to reawaken this deeply buried weak layer, resulting in large avalanches that run on the ground.

    Persistent slab avalanches can propagate farther than you anticipate, and you could trigger them from lower angle slopes adjacent to steep terrain. Hearing loud whumping collapses is a sign that these layers have the potential to produce an avalanche. It will be best to avoid traveling on steep terrain until these weak, sugary snow layers adjust to the new load. 

    (12/21/2022)

    Intentionally skier triggered slide on Wednesday in Icicle Creek that failed on weak faceted snow at the 12/18 interface. 

    Photo: Nate Hough-Snee

Avalanche Discussion

The deep pool of cold air on the east slopes of the Cascades will likely maintain snow throughout the day on Friday and into Saturday. However, while this warm, wet storm is typical for the Cascades, the extremely cold air mass is not. It could be a strange weather day with a mix of very cold temps at lower elevations, mixed precipitation types, and potentially warm westerly winds and above freezing temperatures at higher elevations. If you are traveling in the backcountry, keep your senses tuned into the weather and give yourself a wide margin of safety with your terrain choices to manage this uncertainty. 

It is likely to still be a very chilly day on Friday. So make sure to prepare for these unusually cold temperatures with extra warm layers, face shields, and ensure those grip heaters are up and running.

Thanks for reading! If you are out and about in the mountains, share an observation on the site.

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