Northern New Mexico

Generally safe avalanche conditions exist, but if you are getting out to enjoy the warm weather, there are a couple of avalanche concerns to pay attention to.  Northerly facing slopes continue to weaken and are mainly fully faceted. In steep and exposed terrain it's possible to trigger a dry loose snow avalanche that gouges into depth hoar and facets near the ground. Loose wet snow avalanches are possible  on solar aspects, with another warm, sunny day on tap, and light winds, expect the snow surface to become wet by the afternoon.   

Last week's blip of winter has given way to flip-flop sandal weather as warm, sunny days look to continue through the weekend. It's pretty grim out there if you like making turns in the backcountry, but not bad if you like cruising groomers and working on the tan. Back-to-back bad winters have been tough and make you wonder what the new norm might be for us.  A rafting boat at the liquor store in February has you thinking, "I should probably tell my three-year-old son to  do something productive with his life outside the ski industry". Hopefully he'll tell his grandkids that there was snow in the West! 

All semi-kidding aside, the spring-like weather is helping drive both of our avalanche problems for today. These are both easy to manage and avoid and as every avalanche forecaster likes to say "low avalanche danger doesn't mean no avalanche danger". Warm sunny days and cold clear nights are helping drive a faceting process in the shallow snowpack on northerly aspects. Steep terrain on these shady aspects is where you can trigger dry loose snow avalanches that gouge into depth hoar near the ground. This is also where you'll find the softest snow, but also the deepest, as ski or boot penetration will be close the ground. 

 Another day of warm temperatures, light winds and the increasing sun angle at our latitude is going to heat up the snow surface on solar aspects by midday into the afternoon. As some long time avalanche forecasters have taught me, Valentine's Day is always when it gets hot  from the sun around these parts.  Some of these avalanches could release naturally and may step down into drier but very weak snow near the ground in the shallow snowpack. Watch for roller balls or pinwheels, as these are indications of the surface snow warming up. If you're planning on heading out its never a bad idea to get an early start with a plan for an early exit as snow surfaces warm up.  

It's low tide; ground hazards continue to remain a big concern.  There is at least some hope for a return to winter by the middle of next week with a more active weather pattern hopefully through the end of February. The dreaded Rex-Block looks to break down around the 9th, ushering in a better weather pattern for the west. It's still too far out to get into specifics, but better than warm temps and sunny skies!  I won't be the bearer of bad news for avalanche conditions just yet, but instead be glad that we are hopefully getting much needed moisture before fire season.