The general avalanche hazard is CONSIDERABLE above 8,000 feet and MODERATE below that elevation. Strong northwest winds and lots of new snow have loaded leeward aspects. Over three feet on new snow has fallen at the Commissary Ridge weather station on the south end of the Salt River Range since Saturday morning. Areas of unstable snow exist and human triggered avalanches are likely in steep, wind loaded avalanche starting zones at the higher elevations and possible at the mid and lower elevations. Natural avalanche activity is possible at the upper elevations.
Dense slab avalanches one to to four feet in depth could be human triggered or release naturally above an elevation of 8,000 feet. The deeper slabs are more likely to occur on northerly aspects, failing on a buried layer of faceted snow at the base of the snowpack. Below an elevation of 8,000 feet some potential exists for humans to trigger slab avalanches up to two feet deep.
( Discussion is generated from the previous day's afternoon forecast. )Periods of mainly light snowfall will occur overnight as a fast moving low pressure trough sweeps across the area in a northwesterly flow. This snowfall is expected to taper off during the day on Monday. Temperatures will remain near 10 degrees in the mountains overnight and rise into the teens during the day. Temperatures will be in the teens and 20s in the valley. Winds will be west-northwest at 18 to 27 with gusts to 40 miles per hour.Human triggered slab avalanches are possible in steep avalanche prone terrain at the mid and upper elevations. These slabs could be triggered by the weight of a single person. Slab depths are likely to be one to two feet in depth and could step down on steep northerly aspects to depths of three feet. The general avalanche hazard is expected to be MODERATE at the mid and upper elevations and LOW below an elevation of 7,500 feet.
