High avalanche hazard, avoid all avalanche terrain.
50cm of new snow will over load a fragile snowpack that is already primed for human triggering.
Avalanches initiating within the storm snow may step down to the Feb 3rd melt freeze crust, if they do the crust will promote wider propagation and produce much larger and more destructive avalanches.
A second storm will dump 40-60cm of snow in addition to the 60cm that fell on Sunday forming a deep storm slab, accompanied by strong winds this slab is even deeper and more reactive on wind loaded terrain features.
Natural activity is expected to peak Wednesday night, with widespread size 3 and larger avalanches. Natural avalanches will be likely on Thursday, and human triggered very likely.
On Tuesday a group triggered a size 3 avalanche from ridge top at tree line in the camp west area failing on the Feb 3rd crust (see photos). Numerous other human triggered avalanches have been report throughout the region on this layer.
Storm snow for this week will total around 120 cm by the end of Thursday. The storm will end warm and bring some rain to below treeline. Moderate to strong southerly winds have loaded lee features.
The Feb 3rd crust in under the storm snow, and will be the main failure plane of concern during this period of heavy loading.
The mid to lower snowpack is well settled, except in isolated areas of the alpine where an unusually thin & faceted snowpack exists.
The storm peaks tonight, moving out Thurs, as freezing levels fall and convective flurries forecast.
Tonight: Flurries, 15 cm, mod/strong SW winds, low -5°C, snow lvl 900m
Thurs: Snow, 10 cm, mod SW winds, High -8°C, Snow lvl valley bottom.
Fri: Isolated flurries, 5 cm, light/mod S winds, High -9°C
Sat: Cloudy, light E winds, High -9°C
