Conservative decision making is the best way to increase your safety margin during times of uncertainty.
Folks are still getting surprised by persistent slab activity.
A surface hoar layer, down 30-50cm, is reactive to human triggering. A second layer of large surface hoar is buried 50-80cm deep and sits on a crust. Use caution in terrain that has not seen recent rider traffic - this is where triggering is most likely.
Cold temperatures have dried out the snow making dry loose avalanches likely in steep, unsupported terrain. New snow will be most reactive on slopes with a crust near the surface.
This week field teams have remotely triggered numerous size 1 to 2 persistent slabs from low angle terrain at tree-line and below. These have been 40-60cm deep, failing on surface hoar layers in the upper snowpack.
In the Bostock drainage two separate size 2 avalanches were triggered from 10 to 40m away breaking small trees.
On Monday, a sz 2 avalanche in Cougar Creek East caught and injured a rider.
Up to 60cm of new snow fell this past week. Expect dry loose avalanches in steep terrain, especially where new snow sits over a crust.
The Feb 9 surface hoar (SH) is under this new snow (down 40-60cm) and is reactive in tests. The Feb 9 SH sits over a crust in many locations.
The Jan 26th layer, composed of surface hoar/facets/crust, is buried down 60-80cm. The largest surface hoar is preserved in sheltered areas below treeline.
The arctic airmass will slowly be pushed out with a warming trend towards Monday.
Tonight: Clear periods. Alp low -14°C. Wind S 15km/h. Freezing level (FZL) valley bottom.
Sat: Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Alp high -8°C. Ridge winds S 20km/h. FZL 1100m.
Sun: Flurries, 6 cm. Alp high -6°C. S winds 30km/h. FZL 1700m.
Mon: Cloudy, scattered flurries, 4 cm. Wind SW 15 km/h gusting to 40. FZL 1400 metres
