Bollettino valanghe

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Pericolo valanghe

Sun
Alta quota
2 · Moderato
Limite del bosco
2 · Moderato
Sotto il limite
1 · Debole
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In sintesi

With t-shirt worthy weather, loose slides should become more likely. Minimize your time spent underneath large overhead hazards that could release and fall. Consider moving off steep slopes if you observe sticky surfaces, rollerballing, and fresh avalanches.

Problemi valanghivi

  • Loose Wet

    • Alta quota
    • Limite del bosco
    • Sotto il limite del bosco
    Probabilità
    Possible
    Dimensione
    1–2

    A lot of wet snow avalanches have probably already run their course at this point. But due to several weather inputs laid out further down in the forecast discussion, there's a decent chance you'll still see a slide somewhere on Saturday. Shadier slopes that don't get direct sunlight and therefore have escaped warming and weakening thus far may be the most likely place. Overhead hazards such as cornices might be an issue too. The only slopes with lower likelihood are high elevation northerlies that shade and wind will maintain more of a cool and dry snowpack, as well as lower elevation slopes that lack consistent or any snow coverage to pose a threat.

    Wet loose avalanches often occur in steep, sunlit terrain, especially if there are some adjacent cliffs or rocky terrain. The typical progression involves rollerballs and pinwheels that lead to point releases. Once these slides get going, they could run a good ways on an underlying crust or entrain considerably more snow as they go. Give overhanging chunks of snow along ridgelines a good amount of space if they appear to be drooping, whether you're above or below them. Terrain susceptible to glide cracks may be making themselves known as well; stay off slopes where these exist. If you're punching deeply through the snowpack or surfaces are sticky, consider sticking to low angle slopes.

    (3/30/2025)

    A small wet loose avalanche witnessed at 11am on the east side of Mt Herman, 4500ft. This initiated near rocks and trees, where wet avalanches usually run first. 

    Photo: Magenta Widner-USFS Ranger

Avalanche Discussion

Friday night temperatures aren't going to drop well below freezing, and some high clouds might inhibit radiational cooling. Then, Saturday will be the warmest day of the week, with freezing levels soaring well above our upper elevation band. The day will start out sunny before cloud coverage moves in in the afternoon. With high temperatures, we could see some greenhouse effect with those clouds. All of these inputs create an environment for a weak snowpack. The uncertainty lies in how weak the snowpack has already gotten, as we lack on the ground observations to confirm or deny. We do have high certainty that southerly facing, lower elevation terrain is quite safe. It doesn't have any snow left, and we don't expect avalanches from higher up to grow big enough to travel down to these areas.

We also lack data not only on more remote places in the forecast region but for this zone as a whole. If you're taking advantage of this lovely weather to get into some far out or high up places, you may need to do your own snowpack assessments to gauge conditions.

There is high uncertainty in the weather forecast for Sunday. Models are in disagreement about the likelihood and timing of a low-pressure system impacting the east side of the Cascades. If it does make it over the Crest, rain could fall at upper elevations. But if not, it could be a relatively benign day in the mountains. Be sure to check back into the avalanche forecast if you plan to get out.

With limited observations this time of the season, there is inherently more uncertainty in our avalanche forecast. You can help reduce that uncertainty by submitting a public observation here or on the AVY mobile app.

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