Seward and Lost Lake

With calm weather and a generally stable snowpack it is  unlikely a human will trigger an avalanche today. In the event a person does trigger an avalanche, it would most likely be an old wind slab 1 to 2' deep in steep terrain or a cornice fall as it warms in the sun. Watch for consequences below if a surprise avalanche happens. 

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

The Avalanche Rescue Workshop at Glen Alps has been POSTPONED to Sunday, February 9th.  The workshop is free and all experience levels are welcome. Click HERE for more information.

We're on a brewery tour this week! Come out for two free evenings of conversations about the world of snow and avalanches:

• State of the Snowpack talk - Today! Tuesday, February 4th, 6-7pm at Onsight Brewing in Anchorage. Join Dr. John Sykes and Mary Gianotti for a night of snowpack discussion at a new venue! More details HERE. 
• Forecaster Chat - Thursday, February 6th, 6-7:30 p.m. at Girdwood Brewing Co. in Girdwood. Andrew Schauer will discuss recent CNFAC research and highlight ways it can help your backcountry game. Details HERE.

This period of calm weather is giving us a chance to get out and enjoy the snow that has accumulated and created a strong snowpack from the stormy winter. There is a temperature inversion affecting Summit and Turnagain Pass, but Seward temperatures reached 32 yesterday from sea level to at least 2,000' and temperatures did drop overnight slightly in the upper elevations so that is one difference between Seward and the northern zones. Another difference is we are not seeing glide cracks down here, which is great. If you see one, we'd like to know. Here are some more details on the hazards and things to think about while we take advantage of this weather window.

Lingering Wind Slabs: There may be an old stubborn wind slab left over from last week's north wind event. A shooting crack is a sign that the snow has not stabilized and needs more time. Strong ridgetop winds persisted until Saturday, so it has been 2 days since the snow stopped blowing around. There is plenty of evidence of this even with many sizes of wind slabs visible from Seward with most crowns looking to be 1 to 2' deep. Some slabs propogated several hundred feet wide and some not so wide. They are located at many different elevations with some just beneath ridgetops and some mid-slope, well below where most wind slabs are found, which happens with strong winds at all elevations.

Sun effect: The sun is starting to affect the snow in the northerly forecast zones. There have been many wet loose "sluffs" observed over the last few days from the sun warming south facing rocky areas in Turnagain Pass. These areas are likely forming a sun crust overnight. This could start happening anytime in Seward, so it is time to add the sun to the list of how the weather changes the snowpack.

Cornices: Forecast warm temperatures today combined with the sun, will make higher chances for a natural or human triggered cornice fall. These are unlikley to trigger an avalanche below, but there is evidence of recent cornice fall across forecast zones and the chunks are big enough to do some damage if they hit us from above. 

Safe Travel: Sticking with safe systems, even during periods of low danger, will reduce our chances of getting into trouble if we get surprised by something today. This includes making a travel plan with multiple options depending on what we find out there, checking our transceivers, airbags, communications, and other rescue gear before heading up, and traveling one at a time in avalanche terrain.