West Slopes Central

Expect warming temperatures, rising wind speeds, and increasing cloud cover on Tuesday ahead of precipitation Tuesday night. Snow surfaces could soften, though wind may keep them firm—carry crampons and an ice axe for steep travel. Avalanche danger remains Low, but continue to watch for cornice fall, glide cracks, and snow or rock shedding from steep terrain.

Tuesday is the last day before incoming precipitation. Avalanche danger remains Low, for now. Most everywhere that snow is in our forecast zone, crusts and firm snow surfaces are keeping the snow locked in place, with minimal concern for avalanches. Freezing levels will rise to 7000ft on Tuesday, it'll be windy, and skies will be overcast. We may get more broad surface softening than what we've seen lately due to the warmer temperatures and overcast skies- but maybe the wind will keep surfaces crispy. 

If snow softens more than expected, there's a small chance that we could see a little bit of snow shedding off cliffs or, although unlikely, a glide avalanche on a steep, smooth rock slab where a glide crack already exists. Any snow that may slide on Tuesday falls under the general rules of mountain travel: Identify overhead hazards and assess your exposure. Search for glide cracks, lumpy or wrinkled-looking snow beneath cliffs, sagging cornices, and anything else that appears poorly attached to the mountain. 

Even without avalanches, there are many ways you could get hurt in the backcountry: Snow surfaces are slick, and uncontrolled sliding incidents have been reported in the Cascades over the past week. It's advisable to pack ski and/or boot crampons, and a self-arrest tool if you're planning to venture into steeper terrain. 

I traveled up to around 5000ft in the North Fork of the Skykomish River area on Monday.  Unsurprisingly, firm snow was almost everywhere. There were small amounts of softening at lower elevations and steep south-facing slopes midday. There were a few small patches of softer snow on north-facing and flat surfaces near my top elevation. I searched for any faceting, or weakening, in these spots. I only found a few faceted forms- most of the grains were old melt forms. There wasn't any surface hoar anywhere I traveled. You can read my observation HERE. 

Forecast models vary, but expect precipitation to start Tuesday night and continue for the next few days. Avalanche danger will likely increase when we get several inches of snow coating this old, firm crust.