The likelihood of triggering the late January layer is low but not impossible. Use caution on slopes where a thick and supportive crust is absent.
Thin wind slabs may be found in in exposed terrain in the alpine. These could be more reactive than normal given the hard crust they are sitting on.
The late-January weak layer is down 20-70 cm and was most reactive between 1700 and 2000 m in the north of the region. It is now likely dormant in most areas, especially where there is a supportive surface crust. However, recent snowpack tests suggest it is still reactive and capable of producing large avalanches if triggered. We have now entered a low probability, high consequence scenario with this layer.
Thursday night: freezing levels around 1200m. Light snow bringing up to 5cm with moderate westerly winds.
Friday: light snow bringing trace amounts to the north and up to 5cm in the south of the region. Light to moderate west winds. Freezing levels around 1300m.
Saturday: stormy weather bringing 5 to 10cm of new snow and moderate southwest winds. High of -2 at 1500m.
Sunday: a mix of sun and cloud with light southwest wins. High of -2 at 1500m.
Over the past couple days wet loose avalanches were observed up to size 1.5 on solar aspects.
On Monday a size two natural persistent slab avalanche was reported. This avalanche released in steep terrain on a northeast aspect at 1850m and ran on the late January layer. This avalanche likely occured on Sunday.
Up to 20cm of snow has buried a widespread crust and wind-affected surfaces in exposed high elevation terrain. The melt-freeze crust is reported to exist on all aspects and elevations except for high elevation polar aspects in the north of the region which may still hold dry snow. Facets and surface hoar can be found above the crust.
The late-January crust/facet/surface hoar interface is buried down 20-70 cm. This layer was most reactive between 1700 m and 2000 m in the north of the region. While this layer now appears to be dormant in many parts of the region, recent snowpack tests suggest it is still very reactive in a few places in the north of the region and would still be capable of producing large avalanches if triggered.
