Rain up to Treeline elevations is forecasted for Rogers Pass. With its arrival expect avalanches to increase in size/frequency throughout the park.
Up to 60cm of settled snow covers a series of crusts combined with surface hoar/facets in some locations. Loose wet avalanches in motion have the potential to step down to these layers, creating large avalanches.
The Spring snowpack relies on cold, clear nights to re-form a strong, supportive surface crust. Without overnight recovery, loose/wet avalanches are likely from steep terrain, especially with the added input of sun or rain.
The increasing warmth and rain is beginning to percolate deeper into the snowpack. The potential for this early season basal weakness to wake up increases with these two added inputs.
Numerous moist/wet, loose surface avalanches have been observed from steep gullies/slopes on all aspects at and below treeline. These point releases gather substantial mass as they move downslope into warmer snow.
As the week continues to warm up, expect these wet/loose avalanches to increase in size and potentially step down to deep layers, possibly even the Nov 17 facets.
At Treeline elevations and below, rain and clouds are preventing a strong surface crust recovery.
In the high Alpine, true N'ly aspects hold dry snow. On solar aspects, a breakable crust overlies a series of buried crusts, which may provide a failure plane for slab avalanches as temps rise.
The Nov 17 basal weakness can still be found in many areas, ~20-40cm above the ground.
A warm, wet Wed, then clearing and much warmer conditions arriving for the weekend.
Tonight: cloud/clear periods, Alp low -2*C, gusty mod/strong SW winds, 1800m FZL
Wed: Rain, flurries (10cm) above 2200m, Alp high 2*C, strong SW winds
Thurs: sun and cloud, Alp high 2*C, light/mod W winds, 2400m FZL
Fri: sun, Alp high 8*C, 3600m FZL
