Seward and Lost Lake

Problemi valanghivi

• 

  Loose Wet

  N

  NE

  E

  SE

  S

  SW

  W

  NW

  • Alta quota
  • Limite del bosco
  • Sotto il limite del bosco

  Probabilità

  Likely

  Dimensione

  2–3

  Recent avalanches: In the Seward area, recent avalanches, as far as we know, have been wet loose, some of which have been very large in the last 2 days with warm temperatures and sunshine.

  All the activity in the afternoon the last few days, and another warm day forecast today, means avalanche conditions will be dangerous this afternoon, or even this morning, if there are places that didn't freeze hard last night. High clouds are forecast to come in this afternoon, which could cool things off and make these problems less likely, but that depends on many factors like air temperature, timing of clouds, and potential greenhousing.

  Wet loose avalanches will be more likely for a person to trigger as the snowpack warms through the day. These avalanches could be bigger today than they have been and they have the potential to trigger a larger slab avalanche. A scary sign of a wet slab collapse was observed just below 2.000' on a southwest aspect of Center Ridge yesterday. This occurred in Turnagain Pass, but weather conditions have been similar in Seward. Even relatively small wet loose avalanches can be difficult to escape and the consequences of being caught in a wet slab are severe. If your boot is sinking to your mid-calf it's time to look for colder snow. Although this could lead you to problem 2 described below.

  There is a new glide crack on the south side of Mt. Marathon pictured here. This could release into a destructive glide avalanche at anytime and has the potential to cross the valley of Lowell Canyon where people hike and walk their dogs. 

  Cornices are also failing in the heat of the day. Some cornice fall has triggered large avalanches below, so this is another reason to avoid being underneath steep slopes in the afternoon. 

  

• 

  Persistent Slabs

  N

  NE

  E

  SE

  S

  SW

  W

  NW

  • Alta quota
  • Limite del bosco
  • Sotto il limite del bosco

  Probabilità

  Possible

  Dimensione

  2–3

  Although this has moved to problem 2 with all the wet snow problems that are occurring, we still think a person could trigger a large avalanche on the layer of buried surface hoar that is 2 to 3' deep in Seward. We have some uncertainty as to how likely it is for a person to trigger an avalanche on this layer, but the history of this layer's behavior has made it difficult to trust. It has failed after there are many tracks on a slope, and it has been triggered remotely and from low angle terrain in Turnagain Pass. Lack of recent avalanches on this layer in Seward and snowpit information suggests this problem may be more difficult to trigger in Seward than it is in the northern zones. 

  On mornings when a stout crust has formed (maybe not this morning as it is especially warm in Seward), conditions are generally safer as this crust can protect us from impacting the buried surface hoar and causing it's collapse. However, the timing of crust break down is tricky. If you are choosing to ride steep slopes look for small terrain features rather than large open bowls. Also ensure there are no terrain traps below like gullies or depressions where the snow could pile up and make a rescue difficult.