The avalanche danger will start off at LOW this morning but could transition to MODERATE as the snowpack heats up. Small wind slabs remain a possible threat in the alpine, and wet loose activity will be more pronounced on southerly aspects. Monitor the effects of the sun today and seek out dry unconsolidated snow that has not been stiffened by the wind. Minimize exposure time on steep sunlit slopes, especially in and around rocky outcroppings.
For the most part wet loose entrainment should be confined to the top 3-6 inches of the snowpack.Last night's freeze should help, but today will be warmer than yesterday (with a softer overnight freeze).
Steer clear of wet gloppy snow and seek out the dry stuff. Minimize exposure time on steep sunlit slopes, especially in and around rocky outcroppings.
Small wind slabs remain a possibility in the alpine, but they don't seem to be especially widespread at the moment. The last two days have not been very windy overall and it is suspected that one is going to need to climb to 10,500' or higher to find much in the way of slab development.
If the snow surface has a rippled texture to it then it's probably a sign of wind effect. Give cornices a wide berth and seek out soft, right side up snow.
Another good freeze last night, though not as strong as the previous one. Temperatures will be warmer today and small wet loose activity should continue to shed in steep solar terrain. Seemed like most of these slides were pretty small and slow yesterday, we will see if they pick up any more steam today. The high albedo of the snow yesterday deterred a fair amount of warming on northerly aspects. Enjoy the sunshine.
The pack at the middle and upper elevations is still pretty far away from "isothermal". Recent avalanche activity has mostly been confined to some wet loose, dry loose, and maybe a rogue wind slab or two. At this point it looks like a decent trough drops in our zone out of the NW by Tuesday morning. This should bring cooler temps and unsettled weather through at least Thursday (April 20).
Right now the Grand Targhee Snotel sits at 103% median SWE, Pine Creek Pass sits at 153%, Phillips Bench is at 116%, and Grassy Lake is at 112%. So while it seemed like it never stopped snowing and snow heights reached record levels at the middle and lower elevations, the upper elevations in the Tetons have not received a crazy amount of water like our southern neighbors. When and how the water comes out of the mountains will determine the fate of the reservoirs. Right now Jackson Lake sits at 25% full, Palisades Reservoir sits at 38% full, and the evaporative giant that is American Falls sits at 82%. Generally early melting causes a prolonged runoff with lower stream flows and less water capture. Late melting is good.
