Selkirk Mountains

Generally safe avalanche conditions exist. Avoid complacency when travelling on steep slopes and recognize that there may be isolated areas where the snowpack could behave differently. If you choose to travel in more complex terrain, use safe travel protocol and weigh the consequences in the event of a small avalanche knocking you over and sending you for a long tumble on the hard snow surface. 

With similar stable weather day after day for a prolonged period, there has been very little change in avalanche conditions. The persistent weak layers we have been tracking this season are buried 2 to 3+ feet deep and are blanketed by a thick slab. The significant warming in the 2nd week of January followed by below freezing temperatures has also aided in allowing those layers to become more stubborn to fail, or at least dormant without a major weather event.

Although the avalanche hazard hasn’t changed in 8 days, the snowpack is quietly evolving each day. These subtle changes aren’t moving the needle now but are setting the stage for a significant change once a shift in weather occurs and winter makes a return. Cold, clear nights have created an environment that is ripe for surface hoar growth and facet development.

One of the most alarming aspects of this set up is that the surface hoar is developing widespread on a crust that ranges from breakable to supportable, but nonetheless, is creating a concerning bed surface if the weak feathers get capped and preserved by snow. Below the crust, moisture continues to be zapped from the snow, deepening the extent of the faceting. This series of events creates a potential trap door situation once a slab of snow is deposited over the top.

Firm and refrozen surfaces may not make for the most pleasant riding experience, but it allows us to travel in more terrain with a bit less worry. As you move through the mountains, expect anywhere from a breakable to supportive crust all the way to tippy top elevations. If you migrate toward steeper, more complex terrain, pay attention to how the snow surface changes and factor the “what-if” scenario if a small avalanche were to knock you off your feet and take you for a long ride on a very firm snow surface.

With a few more days of cold temperatures in store, the upper snowpack will continue to weaken. The breakable crust is starting to deteriorate in sheltered north aspects as faceting becomes more advanced. This would be one of the few places where you could provoke a failure in one of the very stubborn weak snow layers where the slab above is shallow and the surface either has no crust or the crust is thin enough that you can easily break through.

Make sure to keep your avalanche brain engaged and continue to use good travel habits. If you get out and about, please consider dropping us an observation HERE or through the AvyApp. Something as simple as describing the weather and surface conditions goes a long way to help our forecast products and your local avalanche community. We have received some very helpful public observations recently, and we look forward to more.

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IPAC is now on the Avy app! View, submit, and share observations on the go using the AvyApp. Your backcountry observations are critical for building our avalanche forecasts. Avy provides a centralized location for core trip planning and you can view streamlined, up-to-date avalanche and weather forecasts for your selected zone, using offline caching. Download Avy today - App Store and Google Play.