Expect generally safe avalanche conditions today, with the likelihood of triggering an avalanche being low. Upper elevations have received a few inches of new snow. While triggering small avalanches is possible on steep, unsupported slopes at these higher elevations, overall risk remains low.
Triggering an avalanche in the small amounts of recent storm snow is unlikely in most locations. Recent small storm snow totals appear to be generally stable and well bonded, yet potential isolated instabilities on steep slopes require caution. Suspect spots are higher elevation slopes above 35 degrees with greater recent storm snow amounts overlying harder wind packed snow.
Recent rainfall has permeated the upper layers of the snowpack across various elevations. Today, anticipate a predominantly wet snowpack on all aspects and elevations. A rain crust identified near the top of the snowpack at most elevations has, for the time being, reduced the likelihood of Loose Wet avalanches at lower elevations. At higher elevations, attention is directed towards monitoring the thin zipper crust, which, with an incoming storm on Saturday night, might transform into a persistent weak layer, creating an ideal surface for new snow avalanches. Currently, above 5500 feet, there's a layer of 1-6 inches of snow atop the crust.
The mid-February crust within the middle of the snowpack remains intact, isolating the lower half and forming a robust base. At low elevations (2000-3000 feet), snow is rapidly disappearing, leaving wet, patchy remnants. Access roads may soon be exposed to dirt, particularly on south faces. For instance, our journey up Tressle Creek revealed snow at the base but thin coverage for the initial 4-5 miles, with creeks flowing.
In mid-elevations (3000-4500 feet), the snow is wet from the surface down, with traces of old crust layers. The isothermic conditions prevail, and despite the presence of a thin rain crust on the surface, we did not observe signs of wet avalanche activity. However, the potential persistence of the rain crust through the weekend poses a risk as it could become a slide plane for incoming snow.
Upper elevations (4500 feet and above) received snowfall while lower elevations experienced rain over the past couple of days. Up to 6 inches of new snow ca be found on the surface. Despite reduced visibility due to fog, conditions for snowmobiling and skiing were favorable. The ridgeline beyond Lunch Peak showed signs of past snow transport, but no wind slabs or red flags were encountered. If you're seeking snow-related activities, upper elevations are recommended.
Fingers crossed for the storm forecasted for Saturday evening to deliver! Weather forecasts are optimistic, predicting up to 2 feet of snow this weekend, with continued snowfall early next week.
