Bollettino valanghe

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Pericolo valanghe

Sat
Alta quota
3 · Marcato
Limite del bosco
3 · Marcato
Sotto il limite
3 · Marcato
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In sintesi

Record-breaking hot weather continues to test the snowpack's ability to stay attached to steep slopes. Temperatures at 11,000ft have remained above freezing since Tuesday, with lows in the 40s. There will be a brief period of better stability this morning while the upper snowpack remains frozen. The danger will then rise towards Considerable as daytime warming increases the threat of large natural wet avalanches. Travel early in steep terrain before surface crusts thaw or meltwater penetrates deeper into the snowpack. 

Problemi valanghivi

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alta quota
    • Limite del bosco
    • Sotto il limite del bosco
    Probabilità
    Possible
    Dimensione
    1.5–2.5

    Travel early in the day to limit your exposure to wet avalanches. A natural wet slab avalanche cycle could begin any day.  Mountain temperatures will again crest 55°F following another poor overnight refreeze. As meltwater advances, it can weaken the upper snowpack or buried weak layers, causing dangerous slab releases or gouging loose avalanches. Wet avalanches are unlikely early in the day while the surface remains frozen and meltwater production is limited. The hazard increases as the snowpack warms and free water moves deeper. The most concerning terrain is where previously dry snowpacks are transitioning to wet conditions this week—especially in steeper, rockier slopes. Many south-facing slopes have already made this transition, while high-elevation northerly aspects are unlikely to produce enough meltwater today.  

    Wet loose avalanche activity has been limited and small in size. The most likely aspects to trigger a wet loose avalanche will be the same as the wet slab avalanche distribution. A triggered wet loose avalanche could entrain the whole snowpack and grow larger in areas where the snowpack has become saturated with water and is unable to support your weight. 

    A skier triggered wet slab earlier this week on Whetstone.  (3/14/2026) 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alta quota
    • Limite del bosco
    • Sotto il limite del bosco
    Probabilità
    Unlikely
    Dimensione
    2–2.5

    Old, hard slabs 2 to 3+ feet thick overlie buried weak layers and are isolated and difficult to trigger. Without obvious warning signs, avalanches are most likely triggered where the slab is thinner and easier to impact the weak layer below.  Cornice falls can also act as triggers. You can reduce your risk by avoiding steep terrain with a thin or variable snowpack, such as rocky areas, rollovers, or places where wind has created uneven slab thickness. The southern half of the compass and slopes with consistently deep and uniform snow depths offer safer options.

    The last persistent slab avalanche in the Northwest Mountains ran in late February on Mt. Axtell.  It released below a cornice on a steep face that has avalanched multiple times this winter. 

Avalanche Discussion

Day 3 of the record-breaking heatwave brings an even weaker overnight refreeze (low temperatures at 11,000' only dropped to ~43°F) and high temperatures will climb a few degrees higher than yesterday.

Wet slabs are among the most difficult avalanche problems to forecast. We have left the likelihood for wet slabs at "possible," as we typically observe a few indicator avalanches before a more widespread event occurs, though this hasn't been a typical winter. CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger and the dangerous avalanche conditions are coming from the building threat of those large natural avalanches occurring any day. One possibility that may be limiting the start of a wet slab avalanche cycle is the lack of wet loose avalanches occurring. Those wet loose avalanches are often the trigger to the larger wet slabs. Forecasters have noted free water pooling at a midpack weak layer, and in the alpine, meltwater was steadily draining off rocks into the snowpack (video).  These are important signs that water is moving through the snowpack.  

Remarkably, we have yet to observe notable avalanche activity during the first couple of days of this heat wave. Will today be the day? Time will tell, but I sure wouldn't linger in steep terrain and find out. Snow surfaces have remained surprisingly supportive over the last couple of days. This is largely due to the rain event in February that created widespread crusts and ice lenses that have often remained intact in the upper snowpack, while multiple extreme wind events have further hardened snow surfaces. We have also been through multiple melt-freeze cycles this winter. A wet slab avalanche cycle is still lurking and could begin any day.

The Persistent slab problem remains a low likelihood avalanche problem on northerly aspects, primarily at near and above treeline elevations. The last persistent slab avalanche to occur in the Southeast Mountain forecast area was on Mt Whetsone around March 11th. In the Northwest Mountain forecast area, the last persistent slab avalanche occurred on February 28th. Slopes with many trigger points or a variable slab thickness would be the most suspect for triggering. 

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