Southeast Mountains

Several persistent slabs over the weekend exemplify our ongoing concerns for triggering a dangerous avalanche that breaks on old, weak snow near the ground.  Although the problem exists at all elevations, it is most likely triggered on previously drifted slopes facing north or east.   Safer travel is in wind-protected terrain where snow depths are less than about 2 feet deep, or on south-facing terrain.  

Wind slabs that formed during Sunday morning's northerly wind event have generally healed up and we've pulled the problem off the list.  If you can find southerly-facing terrain with adequate snow coverage, that's an appropriate place to step out into more aggressive avalanche terrain right now.  The exceptions to a generally safe snowpack on the south quadrant are on high, southeast aspects, which have buried facet/crust concerns on some slopes.  Irwin's explosive-triggered persistent slab on Sunday is a good example. 

In some areas, below treeline slopes are starting to recover from the early December loading period.  In the shallowest parts of our forecast area, the thinner slabs are adjusting and becoming less concerning now. In the deepest parts of our forecast area, weak layers are gaining some strength and slabs are harder to trigger.  With careful snowpack assessments and consideration for terrain consequences, there are options to step out into more challenging terrain below treeline.  There's probably a Goldilocks zone where slabs aren't too thick, aren't too thin, and are just right for human triggering, where snow depths are roughly 3 to 4 feet thick (90 to 120 cm).  

The most dangerous slopes are previously drifted near and above treeline, where weak layers have seen more stress and where slabs are larger and more variable in thickness.  An observation came in yesterday of a destructive natural avalanche that ran over the weekend on Treasury Mountain, with an estimated size somewhere in the D2.5-D3 range.  Our size distribution this month has generally been up to D2.5 in the Northwest Mountains, and up to D2 in the Southeast Mountains, with potential for outliers in the largest and/or most windloaded terrain features.  Although the likelihood of triggering an avalanche in the alpine is decreasing now, the consequences are serious.  Your assessments should include more than just "Can I trigger it?"   You need to also ask yourself, "Do I have uncertainty?" and "What are the consequences if my assessments are wrong?"  Persistent slabs are notorious for their deceptive behavior.