Northern New Mexico

Generally safe avalanche conditions exist today, but low danger does not mean no danger. It's becoming unlikely but not impossible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche where you find a stiffer, more cohesive slab on top of depth hoar and facets below.  Watch for obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks on the surface or firm harder slabs at upper elevations.  Our snowpack remains quite shallow all around the compass, so continue to be cautious of ground hazards like rocks and downed trees in your travels today.

A week of unseasonably warm weather has passed since the last winter storm, and it's become difficult but not impossible to trigger an avalanche in the predominantly shallow snowpack of the Northern Sangres.  Warm but breezy weather will continue this weekend and start to break down Sunday night as a series of shortwave disturbances push into the state early next week, bringing what will hopefully be a return of winter by the middle of next week.  Although this weekend's weather will be decent for getting out and exploring the mountains, snow quality and coverage are definitely lacking in many places, so keep expectations within reason or take advantage of the great opportunities for climbing, riding, boating, or cruising groomers inbounds during this April-esque weather.  If you're looking to get out, your best chances of finding high-quality snow is on wind-sheltered northerly terrain, but with so much wind and warm weather over the past week this is becoming increasingly difficult to find and you'll be dealing with variable surfaces at some point in your travels.

The record-breaking temperatures in northern NM over the last several days have had a big impact in our mountains, with east and west aspects building 5- 15cm melt-freeze crusts on them.  On southerly aspects, last week's snow feels like a distant memory as these slopes have melted out completely.   On shadier aspects below treeline that have avoided the more drastic warming effects, we've been finding a more settled and stiffened slab forming out of the low-density snow we had last Thursday.  We haven't found any of these slabs to be very reactive, but seeing how much wind has blown in the last few days it's possible that you could come across a slab that's able to carry more energy and propagate more widely across a slope.  It's quite easy to impact the incredibly weak snow below these lower-elevation slabs, so keep an eye out for changing signs of instability like audible collapses or shooting cracks as these are signs that you've come across an area that's a bit more sinister.  At upper elevations, strong winds over the last several days have stripped and scoured windward terrain and drifted and pressed the snow into firmer hard slabs, mainly on northerly and east aspects.  Moderate, gusty winds today will continue to press these snow surfaces into harder and harder slabs.  These hard slabs are easy to identify -- they exist on many of the slopes that look decent to ski or ride at upper elevations.  Triggering one of these hard slabs will be difficult and would take hitting a "sweet spot" near the margins where the slab is shallower and you're able to impact the weak snow below, but any persistent slab avalanche of this sort would be dangerous and could break well above you.  Keep your avalanche radar on today despite the overall low danger if you're stepping into bigger terrain, and always practive safe travel habits.  Consider the consequences inherent to any slope and only expose one person at a time to larger sections of terrain above 35 degrees.

The overall picture of our snowpack remains largely unchanged: it is predominantly shallow and we aren't seeing any signs of healing.  Even though we had 4 days at or above freezing with temperatures hitting 50 F for two days at 9300', we weren't finding much water percolating down into in the snowpack this past week.  This is probably a factor of there not being much moisture available in the snowpack, which mainly consisted of facets and depth hoar prior to the January 30th storm that only dropped 0.7-0.8" SWE on top.  Weak faceted snow and depth hoar continue to pervade large portions of the snowpack on all slopes that are holding snow, and these persistent weak layers will be a major concern this upcoming week if the weather forecast verifies and we see some significant snowfall in the mountains again. If it pans out, the forecasted storm patterns will bring rapidly changing avalanche conditions, but also some much needed moisture for our region as we look towards fire season and spring.