Avalanche warning in effect until tomorrow evening at 6pm. Travel in the mountains is not recommended. Significant rain on snow, strong winds, and non-freezing temperatures have all created very dangerous avalanche conditions.
Since the beginning of last week the mountains of NE OR have received between 1-3' of snow, resting on top of a weak base. This "upside" down snowpack is like building your house with a poor foundation, eventually it's going to fail. Same deal with our current snowpack, if it hasn't already failed, it likely will on Monday.
Rain on snow adds significant weight to the snowpack. In the short term this creates dangerous avalanche conditions, which is the reason the danger is at HIGH, and we are putting out an Avalanche Warning. By Monday night, the temperatures will drop to below freezing, snow levels will decrease to below 3,000' and the snowpack will start to regain its strength. The silver lining is the rain will percolate down through the snowpack, and once it freezes acts as rebar, building significant strength. New weight added to the snowpack, and insulation from the new snow last week will help our poor foundation. This might be our second chance for the season, to rebuild our faulty snowpack foundation and start fresh, with a more robust version.
