Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Generally safe avalanche conditions exist. Watch for isolated, thin wind drifts in exposed, upper elevation terrain. You could trigger small, loose snow avalanches (sluffs) in steep terrain.  Weak snow exists at the base of the snowpack on upper elevation, north-facing slopes. The danger will rise after sunset as a storm moves into the area.

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Expected snowfall and increasing winds will cause the danger to rise tonight. On many shady aspects, the storm will test some of the weakest snow we (the SAC forecasters) have seen in our 60 years of collective professional experience. Travel conservatively if you're out after dark.  

Until we get a decent shot of snow, the snowpack is generally stable. You're unlikely to find slopes where you could trigger a slide large enough to bury a person today, but getting caught in a small avalanche could have real consequences given the thin snow cover.  Here are a few isolated hazards to keep in mind:

• Wind slabs: You might find thin, small drifts in exposed terrain. If you're hunting for them, look immediately below prominent ridgelines and in extreme terrain with cliffs and rock features that catch blowing snow. I'd be surprised if you find any wind slabs larger than your bedroom today, but the drifts could be very sensitive to triggering (touchy) on some slopes. If you see cracks shooting from your boards or sled, consider the consequences of getting knocked over or caught in a small slide before committing to serious terrain. 
• Loose snow avalanches (sluffs): That weak snow on shady slopes that I mentioned above - it doesn't take much to get it moving on its own. On Saturday, a skier near Galena Summit was able to trigger a small, loose snow avalanche involving this cohesionless snow. Ben was able to trigger similar slides on Sunday, even at lower elevations on treed slopes. Watch this video from the Sawtooths on Saturday and this video shot Monday in the Soldiers to get a sense of just how weak this snow has become. 
• October facets: In addition to the weak snow in the upper half of the snowpack, we have a monster lurking in the basement. In shady, upper elevation terrain, some snow from October's storms survived. Over time, it turned into large, sugary faceted crystals and is buried at the base of the snowpack. Videos from the White Clouds and Frenchman Creek near the Salmon Headwaters do a good job illustrating the problem, as does the photo below with the green text. We've been on the hunt for this snow over the past few weeks and have found it in many upper elevation locations. Without recent snowfall or wind-loading, triggering an avalanche on this layer is unlikely. But, getting caught in a slide releasing at the base of the snowpack would be UGLY. Because of the potential consequences, we've been avoiding avalanche terrain where this layer exists. 

The future: The generally stable conditions over the past few weeks have been a luxury; we've been able to visit terrain that is typically off-limits this time of year. Tonight's storm will likely bring an end to the carefree travel we've enjoyed. It's time to change our mindset from "innocent until proven guilty" to "guilty until proven innocent."