Provo

The avalanche danger is LOW. Travel in the mountains is inherently risky, so Normal Caution is advised. You are unlikely to trigger an avalanche.

The buried PWL (persistent weak layers) are mostly dormant and triggering one of these is unlikely but not impossible. Continue to avoid glide avalanche terrain

(Grey indicates little to no snow.)

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Yesterday, mountain highs reached close to 50°F near the heat of the day under mostly sunny skies. Light to moderate winds blew from the W. Overnight, we saw the second night of a weak refreeze, with lows just around freezing in most locations. While the increasing W winds helped surfaces cool off, the mid-pack did not get enough time to fully refreeze.

Today skies are mostly cloudy as winds continue to blow in the 20s-30s mph out of the W. Temps will reach the high 30s during the day. A cold front blows in late this afternoon, bringing with it increasing NW winds throughout the day and a stark drop in temperatures to single digits late tonight.

Tonight, frontal passage is set for near or after sunset, and could bring winds >100 mph before tomorrow morning. The front will bring showers dropping 0.1" of H2O overnight, but there's a decent amount of uncertainty around accumulation. Water's likely to fall as graupel with convective activity in the atmosphere. Maybe 1-2" graupel/snow if we're lucky before next week's absurd warm-up (some might call it a meltdown).

What does it mean to drop the PWL?

Graphic courtesy of Joe Stock's 2024 piece in The Avalanche Review.

You'll notice that we dropped the persistent weak layer (PWL)—that's responsible for 4 deaths since mid-February—as a problem today. What we want you to know is that there is a fair bit of uncertainty around dropping a PWL from the forecast. We don't drop a PWL because it's impossible to trigger. In fact, it is literally impossible to be 100% certain that there is not a single lingering weakness. As seen in the graphic, a PWL comes with an inherently higher amount of uncertainty, as do glide avalanches—like the one that ran in Broads yesterday. Know as you travel today that uncertainty lingers in the mountains—and we deal with uncertainty by adding margins. Visiting avalanche pro Lisa Van Sciver put it well in her ob when she wrote, "While the snowpack in this is area is generally stable, in extreme terrain especially unsupportable slopes this structure should be considered..."

Uncertainty is a tough thing to communicate in avalanche forecasting; that's why multiple PhDs are studying it. An important finding so far is that explicitly stating our uncertainty in our forecasts increases trust in the avalanche center. So know: we have some surrounding the PWL. As temps skyrocket next week, know you may find it coming back into the forecast.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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