Lizard-Flathead

Wind and snow will build fresh wind slabs throughout the day. Avoid lingering in the runout of avalanche paths because a cornice fall could trigger a large avalanche.

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

FRIDAY: Increasing cloud and afternoon flurries with about 5 cm, strong southwest wind, freezing level around 1600 m with alpine temperature around -3 C.SATURDAY: Overnight snow with another 10 cm easing and clearing throughout the day, strong southwest wind, alpine temperature around -5 C.SUNDAY: Mostly sunny, moderate southwest wind, alpine temperature around -5 C.

On Thursday, a few small storm slabs were reported to run naturally overnight in steep alpine terrain and then also react to explosives in the morning (size 1-1.5). More evidence of large deep persistent slab avalanches from last weekend's avalanche cycle were also reported from the Barnes Lake and Cold Feet areas.Expect wind slabs to develop throughout the day on Friday as another pulse of snow and wind arrives in the afternoon. However, the primary concern is the potential for deep persistent slab avalanches triggered by natural triggers such as a cornice fall. See the forecaster blog for advice on managing a low probability - high consequence problem (here) and the accompanying photos (here).

Light precipitation has delivered 15-25 cm of heavy snow at higher elevations, while rain soaked has the snow below about 1800 m. The new snow has fallen on a thick rain crust that has capped the snowpack at all elevations. Daytime warming and sunlight tend to break down the crust in some areas, but it remains frozen on northerly alpine terrain. Isolated basal facets exist in shallow snowpack areas and still have the potential to produce destructive full-depth avalanches.