Bollettino valanghe

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Pericolo valanghe

Tue
Alta quota
3 · Marcato
Limite del bosco
3 · Marcato
Sotto il limite
2 · Moderato
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In sintesi

Heavy snowfall and strong winds today will create dangerous avalanche conditions at upper elevations. Storm slab avalanches could break on the old snow/new snow interface or step down into deeper weak layers in the snowpack.  Persistent slab avalanches remain possible on weak layers near the ground or in the middle of the snowpack.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes steeper than 30 degrees, paying attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses.  Avoid slopes that are actively loading.

 

Problemi valanghivi

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alta quota
    • Limite del bosco
    • Sotto il limite del bosco
    Probabilità
    Possible
    Dimensione
    2–3

    New snow and wind will continue to load and stress deeper buried weak layers. Near and below treeline is where you're more likely to find and impact depth hoar and faceted weak layers near the ground.  At upper elevations, faceted crusts and small-grained facet layers between harder slabs linger in the middle of the snowpack.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes steeper than 30 degrees as it's possible to trigger an avalanche from a distance away.  Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses.  A smaller point release or storm slab avalanche could step down into these deeper weak layers creating a very large and most likely unsurvivable avalanche.  These persistent slab avalanches could run long distances well into the flats below.  

     

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alta quota
    • Limite del bosco
    • Sotto il limite del bosco
    Probabilità
    Likely
    Dimensione
    1–2

    Another round of significant snow and strong westerly winds will continue to add to storm slabs that formed from the 2 feet of snow we've received over the last 4 days. West winds have picked up overnight and are expected to remain strong throughout the day will help to load slopes.   These slabs have been forming on top of a variety of older surfaces prior to last week's storm from crusts to wind slabs and near-surface facets on northerly aspects. Storm slab avalanches may fail on the old existing surface or within density changes within the new snow.  Storm slab avalanches can be large on their own and able to break widely across a slope.  In steep terrain that is more wind-sheltered, you may encounter fast-moving loose snow sluffing that could be big enough to take you off your feet and bury you in a terrain trap. A smaller storm slab or loose snow avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche. 

Avalanche Discussion

We will be doing daily avalanche forecasts throughout the week, as changing and dangerous avalanche conditions are expected.

What an active streak of weather as another Atmospheric River (AR) event takes aim for northern NM.  Light snowfall started early this morning and is expected to ramp up today through the evening as waves of moisture push into northern NM. Snow totals could be 1 to 2 feet of snow by Tuesday morning. Snow is expected to continue Tuesday through Wednesday as a second round of moisture moves over the area.   Westerly winds have picked up overnight and are in the teens and twenties with gusts in the 40 mph range. Winds are expected to really ramp up Tuesday into Wednesday. 

New snow is going to be added to the 2 feet of snow we've picked up since last Wednesday.  Outside of yesterday's sunny day, we've seen dribs and drabs of light low-density snow showers with light winds since Friday.  Winds have picked up overnight and should be getting a head start on loading slopes ahead of today's snow. Yesterday, temperatures remained below freezing, but the intense sun this time of year created a thin crust on the surface on some solar aspects that will bear monitoring as either an interface or potential faceted crust.  

The persistent weak layers near the ground that has plagued us much of the season won't have much time to adjust to the latest round of loading since Thursday that brought 2.5" of snow water equivalent (SWE). With heavy snowfall and strong winds forecasted into Thursday, we could pick up several feet of snow and close push to 5" of SWE over the last week. Near and below treeline terrain is where depth hoar near the ground continues to linger in a relatively shallow snowpack (< 1.5 m) prior to last week's storm.  At upper elevations, there's still a threat of triggering an avalanche near the ground, but most slopes have a deeper snowpack where impacting these layers would be more difficult. In the middle of the snowpack, small-grained facets sandwiched between harder slabs and faceted crusts have been observed but are not widespread.  Most of these layers have been found on north and easterly aspects near and above treeline.  These storms over a week period will be the biggest snowfall events of the season and may push us into a hard-to-forecast, deep persistent slab avalanche problem especially if we see the higher end of the forecasted amounts over the next several days.  

With significant snow and strong winds forecasted into Thursday, expect dangerous avalanche conditions to stick with us through the week.  Sticking to lower-angle terrain that doesn't have steep slopes above you will help keep you safer in travels. 

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