The avalanche danger is MODERATE this morning, but could rise to CONSIDERABLE today as blowing and drifting snow create unstable conditions on upper elevation slopes that face W-N-E. Avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
There also remains a MODERATE danger for triggering a deep avalanche, failing on a buried persistent weak layer. Though the likelihood of triggering this type of avalanche has lessened, the consequences have not, and this type of avalanche is un-survivable. The problem exists primarily on steep slopes facing NW-N-E, but in some cases, it may be found on all aspects of the compass, particularly at upper elevations.
Be on the lookout for fresh wind drifts as snow begins to accumulate. New wind slabs will be found on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain, primarily on slopes facing W-N-E. Look for cracking in the snow surface as s sign of instability, and avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
Last week's storm produced a widespread avalanche cycle with slides breaking anywhere from 4'-12' deep on a persistent weak layer that has plagued us for much of the season. While we've experienced many active periods of natural activity since the new year began, this was the event that finally brought the house down. In total, 32" of snow with 3.6" of water weight was the straw that broke the proverbial camel's back. This was quite a thumping, and now, the big question is how long does it take for things to stabilize? Time and warm temperatures have certainly aided in the process. I would say at this point that triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche has become less likely. The problem is that signs of instability will not be presenting themselves and you may be able to put one, two, or several riders on a slope before someone finds the right trigger point. And if one is found, the avalanche will be deep, and un-survivable. The bottom line is that I'm not personally willing to take on that kind of risk.
Skies are cloudy, SE winds are cranking in the 30's along ridge tops and 10,000' temps are right around freezing. A slow moving low pressure system will churn through the 4 Corners region today. We should see heavy snowfall this morning with a lull this afternoon as the first shortwave exits the area. A second wave will move through this evening bringing another round of snow tonight, and lingering into Friday morning. It looks like the Abajos will be favored, and I'm seeing 6"-8" for the La Sals. SSE winds today will average 20-25 mph along ride tops with gusts into the 30's. High temps at 10,000' will be in the mid 30's.
New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snotel totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Winds at 11,000 feet on Abajo Peak (11,330') about 45 miles south.
National Weather Service point forecast.
Check out this clip of local Moab sledders playing it safe and making sure their beacons are on at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
