Heavy snow and strong northwest winds are forecast for the Aspiring region again on Tuesday.
There will be a Considerable risk of avalanches during this time.
Travel on or under avalanche terrain should be avoided over the next few days
Wind slab is likely to form on east and south aspects above around 1600m over the next few days.
As the storm continues on Tuesday, these will increase in size and likelihood. Natural avalanches are expected.
Best avoid avalanche terrain, stick to your local field, and let the storm pass.
With rain in the forecast again on Tuesday up to around 1600m, a round of small natural loose wet avalanches is possible on all aspects below about 1600m.
A cycle of natural avalanches is likely to have run during the current storm, ranging from loose wet below around 1600m and wind slabs in the upper elevation bands.
If you see any recent avalanche occurrences or have any relevant snowpack information or photos, you can share them via the Public Observations link on the NZAA home page.
50-60cm of new snow has fallen on Monday tapering off to rain around 1500m. A similar amount is forecast to fall again on Tuesday along with strong northwest winds.
On the 8th July, 5- 10 cm of new snow fell to around 900m. Gale south easterly winds during this storm stripped some exposed areas and loaded ridgetops and other terrain features. On the 5th, a notable 1-2cm rime crust formed above 1650m to the east of the region around Wanaka and may be present in some eastern areas of the Aspiring region too. Below this, 30- 50 cm of settled snow from the 3rd of July overlies a solid ice layer. A week of clear skies and cold temperatures has started to facet and weaken the strength of this shallow 50- 70 cm snowpack and should be monitored carefully once buried under the new load of snow.
Information and observations are currently very limited.
Forecast for Tuesday
Rain, heavy and thundery. Snow possible to 1500 metres.
Wind at 1000 metres Northwesterly 45 km/h, rising to gale 65 km/h for a time in the afternoon.
Wind at 2000 metres Northwesterly gale 65 km/h, rising to severe gale 95 km/h for a time in the afternoon.
Wind at 3000 metres Northwesterly gale 85 km/h, rising to severe gale 100 km/h for a time in the afternoon.
Freezing level 1800 metres, lowering to 1500 metres at night.
Issued: 11:45am Mon 13 Jul
The incoming snowfall should reduce any sliding danger over the coming days.
Moderate
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)
