Provo

CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on upper elevation slopes that face northwest through east for triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche on a Persistent Weak Layer of snow found at the base of the snowpack. MODERATE danger exists on mid elevation slopes and upper elevation slopes facing south and west. Watch for slabs of wind drifted snow.

LOW avalanche danger is found on all slopes under 8,000' in elevation.

HEADS UP for increased winds from the southwest today.

Final report for the Dutch Draw avalanche fatality is available HERE.

Consider donating to the Matt Tauszik Memorial Fund to help his wife and young son.

Yesterday one ski area in the Cottonwoods triggered an avalanche 2.5 ft deep and 100 ft wide that broke on old snow near the ground in very steep and very rocky, northeast-facing terrain at 10,400 feet. A regular observer found a large avalanche (3 ft deep and 350 ft wide) on a northeast-facing slope near 10k ft that likely occurred on Monday. In Snake Creek another regular observer triggered a soft slab of wind drifted snow (10 in deep and 80 ft wide).

A skier with a speed wing (like a paragliding wing) triggered a small avalanche near the scene of Sunday's fatal avalanche in Dutch Draw, but he flew above it and was not caught. However, the Park City Ski Patrol began organizing a response because there was a set of ski tracks entering the avalanche and none exiting. Thankfully the skier notified a ski patroller that he was ok. (photo - Park City Ski Patrol).

All other avalanches and observations are listed HERE.

A strong temperature inversion exists with trailhead temperatures near 10 degrees F while temperatures at ridgetops and peaks are in the mid to upper 20s F. These upper elevations temperatures are almost 20 degrees warmer than they were yesterday morning.

The other change in weather this morning is that winds increased and shifted to the southwest. At ridgetops they are averaging 15-20 mph and gusting up to 20-30 mph. These increased winds are mainly occurring at upper elevations. Low and mid elevation winds are blowing about 5 mph.

Today, temperatures should warm into the upper 20s F but mostly cloudy skies will keep temperatures from heating up as much as they would under full sunshine. Winds should slowly increase this morning and remain from the southwest. They should peak later this afternoon with 50 mph gusts at 11,000 feet.

The snow yesterday got damp on some south-facing slopes and even produced rollerballs and a few small loose wet sluffs.

Persistent Weak Layer discussion: On Monday while investigating the recent avalanche accident along the Park City ridgeline, we traveled along the ridge to the top of the slope. Standing there, we looked at the last six turns a 45 year old snowboarder made and stood in silence.

After a couple of minutes four avalanche professionals debated if we should descend the slope to take a look at the avalanche and investigate the crown and layering of the slide. With some discussion we all determined the upper 1/4 was low enough angle (30°) to safely descend. However, the slope midway down pitched to 33° degrees in steepness and we all felt very uncomfortable with the danger of triggering a slide there. Collectively, we decided it was too unsafe to descend the slope to look at the avalanche. We walked back to the resort safely along the ridgeline and descended a southerly aspect to the flats below. Now in the run-out zone we also determined it was too risky to enter from below because of the overhead hanging snow and the possibility of triggering another avalanche remotely (from a distance).

Now is the time to exercise patience in the mountains and let these weak layers gain strength and heal. I get it - the snow looks amazing on steep northerly facing aspects, the desire to ride these lines is pulling me in. However, I am just fine looking at it and saying "soon enough." The risk does not equal the reward in my book.

Yes, the slab is strong and travel is now easy. Nevertheless, the weak layer is still down there and it remains weak. The likelihood of triggering an avalanche is decreasing, signs of instability like collapsing and remote triggers are becoming less and less, but the consequence of triggering an avalanche remains the same. Avalanche activity is slowing down, however, there still remains the chance of finding the sweet spot on the slope that brings millions of pounds of snow down the mountain. Remember that tracks are not a sign of stability.

What will it take for me to trust this weak layer?

• More time
• No more avalanches failing into the weak faceted snow. (it's only been 24 hrs since the last reported human triggered slide).
• Extended column tests recording no propagation (not just one! many need to be done).
• Another loading event where avalanches don't fail on this weak layer.

The good news: We have a phenomenal snowpack for December 17th and we have perfect powder on so many aspects and elevations. The low angle terrain is fast and surfy. The weak snow at the ground will eventually heal with time. With some patience we will be able to safely get after the steep terrain in time to come.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures

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