A natural avalanche cycle is underway. Stick to simple or non-avalanche terrain well away from overhead hazards.
Steady snowfall and strong winds are forming thick storm slabs across the region's avalanche terrain. A natural avalanche cycle began Wednesday morning and forecast weather should keep it going.
Rising temperatures and rain will increasingly promote wet loose avalanche activity during the day.
A natural avalanche cycle to size 2.5 was observed in the north of the region starting early Wednesday morning and likely remains ongoing. Skier traffic and ski cutting during the day produced several size 1.5 releases. All releases were noted to have failed on the drought layer described in our snowpack summary.
Another round of moderate to heavy snowfall (even a bit of rain) and wind should maintain dangerous avalanche conditions through the coming days.
Another 30 to 40 cm of new snow should accumulate by end-of-day Friday, bringing storm totals since January 25 to about 80 - 100 cm, with moderate to strong south winds accompanying it all.
The new snow has reached a critical load above a grab-bag of drought surfaces. Heavy wind effect and supportive crust predominate, but these may be paired with faceted grains or large, weak surface hoar in sheltered areas--a bad combo.
The January 3rd surface hoar is still a layer of note, found 100 to 250 cm deep. It hasn't produced avalanches recently and ought to be locked under the crust in many areas.
Treeline snow depths throughout the region range from 250 to 450 cm.
Thursday Night
Cloudy with increasing snowfall bringing 15 - 20 cm of new snow, rain below about 1000 m. 30 to 50 km/h southeast ridgetop wind, increasing. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level 1300 m.
Friday
Cloudy with easing snowfall bringing a final 15 - 20 cm of new snow, rain below about 1200 m. 50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C to 1 °C. Freezing level 1300 m to 1500 m.
Saturday
Becoming a mix of sun and cloud after isolated flurries overnight. 30 to 40 km/h south ridgetop wind, increasing. Treeline temperature -1 °C to 0 °C. Freezing level 1200 - 1300 m.
Sunday
Cloudy with flurries bringing 5 to 10 cm of new snow. 30 km/h southeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level 1000 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
