Strong winds, warm temps and the possibility of some incoming precipitation are increasing the avalanche danger at this time. The snowpack rarely likes anything that happens suddenly
If triggered the persistent slab is very likely to steep down to the deeper instability and involve the entire winter's snowpack.
With the warm temps arriving this layer may become more reactive
Nothing new observed today.
The snowpack has seen very little change in recent times. The mid-December surface hoar layer down 30cm at Treeline continues to react as a persistent slab with compression tests in the moderate range. Below this, the remainder of the snowpack is heavily facetted. Any avalanche triggered in the upper snowpack will almost certainly step down to the ground.
With the arrival of the strong winds and warmer temperatures the snowpack may become more reactive as it settles with the warmer conditions. Windslabs may develop in alpine and treeline areas that make the persistent December layer more reactive. This is the first "Change" we have had in the snowpack in some time so give it time to adjust.
Friday is the arrival of the warmer air and strong winds ahead of the pineapple express/atmospheric river headed our way. Freezing levels are forecast to climb up to 2000m and we may see light rain/snow fall with the system along the divide. This wind and rapid warming will likely make the snowpack settle and become more reactive. On Saturday there is a chance for some snow but not the amounts that we would like. 8-10cm is possible.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
