630 AM update: Continue to avoid high consequence terrain. New snow will be most reactive at wind-affected elevations. The new snow load adds stress to deeper instabilities, with potential for large, consequential avalanches.
New snow and wind are forming storm slabs.
Keep in mind that if triggered, storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in very large avalanches.
A crust with weak, faceted snow above and below exists near the base of the snowpack. Human-triggering this layer is unlikely, but large loads such as cornice fall or a smaller avalanche stepping down to this layer are possible. Avoid thin, rocky, wind-affected areas where triggering this layer is most likely.
This layer is likely to be a concern for an extended period in this region.
On Wednesday one size 1.5 ski cut was reported. It was a wind slab over the late December crust on a east aspect.
Strong to extreme southerly winds will continue to scour south facing slopes. Thin wind slabs could be found a short ways into lee slopes but most snow will be sublimated or blown way by the intense winds. Moist snow will likely be observed at lower elevations.
In Sheltered terrain at treeline, a new layer of surface hoar is on or near the surface. A thick crust formed in late December is down 20 to 50cm. at lower elevations this crust is up to 15cm thick, in the alpine it is thin and breakable.
Near the base of the snowpack, a weak facet/crust layer from mid November can be found and is still a concern. In general the snowpack is weak, faceted and shallow.
Thursday Night
Stormy with 5 to 15cm of new snow expected. Strong to extreme south winds. Freezing level falling to 1200m by early morning.
Friday
Cloudy with up to 5cm of new snow expected. Strong southerly winds. Freezing level rising to 1500m.
Saturday
Cloudy with around 5cm of new snow expected. Moderate southerly winds and freezing levels around 1500m.
Sunday
Cloudy with around 5cm of new snow expected. Strong southerly winds and freezing levels around 1500m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
