Start and finish early to enjoy the good conditions! Temperatures will be slightly higher on Tuesday so watch for any increase in avalanche activity with warming.
Travel is generally safer in deeper more uniform snowpack areas. Triggering the mid-pack and basal facet layers is most likely in thin snowpack or thick-to-thin areas.
The Feb 3 crust/facet interface is down 50-100 cm. Triggering avalanches on this layer is possible in thin snowpack areas on northerly alpine aspects where this interface remains weak.
Thin snowpack areas on polar aspects in the alpine, and thick-to-thin snowpack features like moraines, are where the basal facets and depth hoar remain weakest and triggering the basal weaknesses is most likely. Probing may indicate a "hollow" feel to the base of the snowpack in these areas.
No new avalanches were observed in the forecast area over the past couple of days.
Within the past four days there was a size 2-2.5 slide remotely triggered in the Hector moraines, a size 3 remote in Hidden Bowl, and a size 3 skier accidental on Tent Ridge in Kananaskis Country. All of these occurred in thinner snowpack alpine areas on northerly aspects where the snowpack remains weakest.
Sun crust on steep solar aspects to ridgetop. 10-35 cm of dry snow on polar aspects over the Mar 20 layer with minimal wind effect. The Mar 20 crust is everywhere except north aspects above 1800 m and is helping reduce the sensitivity of the lower snowpack layers.
Our main concern is thin snowpack areas on northerly alpine aspects. This is where the mid-pack Feb 3 facets/crust layer and the basal facets/depth hoar remain weakest. Deeper snowpack areas have few concerns.
Tuesday: Scattered flurries for the range with trace accumulations and occasional sunny breaks. Light to moderate westerly ridgetop winds. Freezing levels rising to 1900 m.
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