Rain below 1800m will increase the danger of loose wet avalanches on all aspects. Wind slab danger will increase on south and eastern aspects above 1800m as new snow is redistributed by strong to gale-force northwest winds about the tops.
With forecast rain below 1800m the snow is likely to become saturated. The danger of loose wet avalanches will increase to possible on all aspects below 1800m where sufficient snow exists. Care will be required if the snowpack becomes increasingly saturated and unsupportive during the day.
Snow above 1800m will be redistributed by strong to severe gale north-westerly winds. Wind slab will become increasingly likely in the high alpine and may become considerable during Saturday evening as size and likelihood increase.
The snowpack is generally well-settled. There is still intermittent snow cover below 1800m especially on north and west-facing aspects. Cover above 1800m is consistent, particularly on south and east aspects. The last storm snow has settled and bonded well. Moderate temperatures have helped with this. The snowpack will be sensitive to being saturated by rain.
Rain below 1800m and snow above will develop during the morning and become heavy by mid to late afternoon. Strong north-westerly winds will increase to severe gale by evening. The freezing level will rise from 1700m to 2000m by the afternoon.
The snow is likely to be soft and unfrozen, but an ice axe and crampons should be carried for mountain travel.
Moderate
No new avalanche activity has been seen. Please provide any snowpack or avalanche observations using the link below.
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)
