Purcells

Although the frequency of natural avalanches has gone down recently, the possibility of triggering a large, destructive avalanche is still very real. See the Forecasters Blog for more insight into this tricky situation.

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

The ridge of high pressure continues to dictate conditions for the forecast period. Cold, dry arctic air scheduled to move back into the region. Strong arctic outflow winds have already begun and will continue into the coming weekend. For a more in-depth look at the weather, check out the latest: Weather OutlookThursday night: Cloudy periods, freezing level at valley bottom, trace of precipitation,...ridge top winds, light to 25Km/h.Friday: Sunny, freezing level at valley bottom, trace of precipitation in the forecast, ridge top winds from the north to 20 Km/h.Saturday: Sunny, freezing level at valley bottom, ridge top winds from the north gusting to 40 Km/h.Sunday: Sunny, freezing level at valley bottom, trace of precipitation, ridge top winds light.

Natural avalanches are still occurring up to size 2.5 in the forecast area, and as temperatures warm up may increase in frequency. Cornices failures may also occur with the warming temperatures and will certainly add to the hazard.Conditions are ideal for rider triggering right now. We have received numerous reports of skier triggered and skier accidental avalanches, many of which have released quite deep in the snowpack. Neighboring areas have reported avalanches that were remotely triggered from a considerable distance.

The storm slab of about 1 metre overlies a persistent weak layer, (surface hoar/facet/crust combo) that was formed during the preceding month of cold dry weather. The storm slab appears to be gaining strength with settlement and warm temperatures but the persistent weak layer beneath it remains widespread at all elevations and aspects. Although this weak layer is not as reactive as it has been, it's still a very real concern. Surface hoar and near surface facetting is occurring on protected/shaded aspects, and solar aspects are moist to quite high elevations during the day with sun crusts forming at night. Winds shifting from south west to north east will signal wind slab development on south east slopes when the arctic outflow arrives from the northeast.Large settlements and whumpfs are still being reported indicating the ability of this weak layer to fail. Remotely triggered avalanches tell us it has the ability to propagate over large distances. Touchy conditions will remain for the near future.