Bollettino valanghe

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Pericolo valanghe

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  • Limite del bosco
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In sintesi

The avalanche danger is MODERATE with recent deposits of wind drifted snow on all aspects above treeline. The primary concern, however, remains the very real possibility of triggering deep and dangerous avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer. You are most likely to trigger one of these avalanches on steep terrain near and above treeline that faces W through N, to SE. Avoid areas where the slab thins such as rock outcroppings, sparse trees, or along slope margins as these are the most likely areas to trigger an avalanche. The danger is LOW below treeline, but you can still trigger small avalanches in isolated areas or in extreme terrain.

Problemi valanghivi

  • Persistent Slabs

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    • Limite del bosco
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    Probabilità
    Possible
    Dimensione
    3

    Poor snowpack structure exists with consolidated slabs resting on buried persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow on many aspects. However, the snow is getting stronger with time and relatively warm temperatures within the lower snowpack. Extended column tests were not able to produce failures that propagated across the column (ECTN28 x2). Two propagation saw tests did, however, suggest that the "propensity for propagation" is still present (PST30/100 (End) @ 32 cm and 15 cm). The most dangerous areas are on slopes above treeline that face NW-N-SE where wind drifted snow has created slabs 1'-3' deep on top of these buried weak layers. Once triggered, these slab avalanches would be large and destructive.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alta quota
    • Limite del bosco
    • Sotto il limite del bosco
    Probabilità
    Possible
    Dimensione
    2

    Northerly winds over the weekend have transported the recent, low-density snow, and fresh, potentially unstable drifts have formed on all aspects, primarily in upper elevation wind exposed terrain. Look for fresh drifts on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features like sub-ridges and gully walls. On steep, northerly aspects, wind drifted snow has added additional stress to buried persistent weak layers so it isn't merely a question of identifying and testing for wind slab instability. The bottom line is that steep, wind loaded, northerly-facing terrain remains very much a gamble, and deep and dangerous, human-triggered avalanches remain possible in these areas.

  • Loose Wet

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    • Limite del bosco
    • Sotto il limite del bosco
    Probabilità
    Possible
    Dimensione
    1

    We may seem some shallow, loose wet activity today as the sun heats up the recent cold snow. This will likely come in the form of some roller balls, pinwheels, or even a few loose snow sluffs. By and large these shouldn't prove to be dangerous but it's good practice to be alert to the aforementioned signs of wet instability and to stay off of and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present.

Additional Info

Here is view of last week's weather data.

And here are some snowpack data from the Colorado River Basin Forecast Center. We are currently at 71% of normal.

General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Special Announcement

The Geyser Pass Road will be closed this morning in order to widen the road. The surface is snow-packed, icy, and slick. All-wheel drive with good tires is recommended.

The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) groomed and set classic track into Gold Basin on Monday.

Snow and Weather

24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 49" Wind S 15-25 mph Temp 17F

Sunny, with a high near 35F at 10,000'. South wind around 15-25 mph. Southwest flow overhead will bring an area of low pressure and precipitation to our area this evening/ tomorrow morning. This system looks to have a decent amount of moisture; however, it will be quick-moving, and models suggest about 3-5" of snow, coupled with some blustery south and southwest winds. The flakes begin to fall around midnight. High-pressure returns for the weekend. A change in the pattern will occur next week, as several disturbances are predicted to enter our forecast area.

NWS Weather Forecast.

Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')

Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')

Snowpack Discussion

Settled powder can still be found on northerly-facing, higher-elevation aspects. Southerly aspects were warmed by the sun yesterday and many areas have crusts. Warm temperatures and over two weeks since our last major loading event (Feb. 13th) has helped the snowpack gain strength. Near and below treeline, the snowpack is generally supportive, and you will probably not see any obvious signs of instability such as cracking or collapsing. However, if you dig down or probe the snow, you will still find weak layers near the bottom of the snowpack. Above treeline, about 4" of snow and Northerly winds over the weekend have formed potentially unstable drifts on all aspects. The most dangerous slopes face NW-N-SE and contain a slab 1'-3' thick that is perched above weak, faceted snow. These slabs are becoming harder to trigger but once released they could produce deep and dangerous avalanches. Likely trigger points include shallower areas along slope margins, around sparse trees or rock outcroppings, or on repeat running slide paths.

Regioni coperte