Isolated areas of wind slab may still be developing with the forecast strong southeasterly winds.
Don't be fooled by the shallow snowpack; the consequences may still be high.
There is very limited data around the current snowpack structure, particularly above 2000m. A cautious, investigative approach should be applied to any backcountry travel.
On lee slopes and catch features where blowing snow is likely to accumulate, wind slab may continue to develop, particularly above around 1800m where the quantity of available snow is far greater.
With open creeks and rocky runouts, the consequences of taking a ride in even a small avalanche could be high.
Above around 1800m, firm icy conditions may become exposed in many areas as the southerly winds continue to strip exposed areas back to old ice layers.
Ice axe and crampons are recommended.
Moderate
There have been very few observations in the Aspiring region so far this winter.
Some natural wind slab avalanche activity is expected to have run in the top and possibly middle elevation bands during the last storm cycle.
If you see any recent avalanche occurrences or have any relevant snowpack information or photos, you can share them via the Public Observations link on the NZAA home page.
On Wednesday, more snow fell farther east and north of the region, with the Aspiring region receiving a possible 4-5cm. Gale south easterly winds may have also redistributed any available snow from the southern aspects.
In the top elevation band above around 2200m, 1m of snow may have accumulated since the 3rd of July. 20- 30 cm between 1800- 2200 m, and as temperatures dropped on Saturday afternoon, we now have about 10- 20 cm down to 1500m. Gale-force northwest winds during the storm shifted to the south, then to the southeast on Sunday, redistributing the recent storm snow.
Previously, there was a light dusting of snow on 22nd June over an unseasonably shallow snowpack across the region. Between 1900-2400m, some gullies and leeward catch features had started to fill in, and below 1900m there was little to no snow.
Snowpack information is currently very limited.
Forecast for Thursday
Cloudy periods.
Wind at 1000 metres Southeasterly gale 85 km/h, easing to 65 km/h before dawn, then to 30 km/h in the evening.
Wind at 2000 metres Southeasterly gale 65 km/h, easing to 30 km/h in the afternoon.
Wind at 3000 metres Southeasterly 40 km/h.
Freezing level 1200 metres, lowering to 800 metres for a time in the morning.
Issued: 12:47pm Wed 8 Jul
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)
