There is uncertainty on how prolonged warming will impact an already wet and weak snowpack.
Stick to simple terrain and avoid exposure to overhead hazard.
A weak layer of surface hoar is buried around 50 to 100 cm deep. Additional snow load and warming will increase the likelihood of triggering, as well as the size of avalanches running on this layer.
Up to 40 cm of heavy storm snow has formed a storm slab that will be deeper in wind-loaded areas.
Prolonged warming and sun may continue to produce wet loose avalanches from steep terrain.
On Monday, numerous natural and skier-triggered avalanches (size 1-2) were observed with precipitation, wind, and warming. Observations were limited by stormy conditions.
Preliminary reports on Tuesday indicate that a natural avalanche cycle occurred as freezing levels rose to near mountain top.
Looking forward to Wednesday, warm temperatures and sun will continue to destabilize an already weak snowpack.
Rain and warm temperatures have created a wet snow surface to at least 2300 m. A weak crust may form on the surface from clear skies overnight. In the alpine, up to 40 cm of recent snow has been redistributed by strong southwest winds.
A weak surface hoar layer currently buried 50 to 120 cm has been the failure layer in many recent avalanches. On south-facing slopes, this layer is a sun crust.
The remaining snowpack is generally well-bonded and consolidated, with multiple crust layers present.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 2 °C. Freezing level 3400 m.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 2 °C. Freezing level 3100 m.
Thursday
Mostly sunny. 50 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 1300 m.
Friday
Sunny. 30 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level 2000 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
