Aspiring

Winds are forecast to rise to gale force from the NW during the day, periods of heavy snow and rain are anticipated. This storm will see the avalanche hazard increase significantly. Wind slab will become reactive and widespread as snowfalls increase through the storm cycle particularly as at moderate altitudes this snow will be falling on slick bed surfaces. Rain at lower elevations may create wet snow avalanches.

Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.

A cycle of small wet loose and wet slab avalanches has been observed on solar aspects during the last fine spell. Glide cracks have been reported as developing on steep north facing terrain at lower elevations.

If you see any recent avalanche occurrences or have any relevant snowpack information or photos, you can share them via the Public Observations link on the NZAA home page.

Fresh snow fall of up to 50cm are anticapted in the region oveer the next few days.

Previously above 1900m: A mix of facetted surface snow and wind pressed snow existed on south aspects. This snow has largely bonded well to the old snow surface and the upper and mid pack are generally showing settled characteristics as total snow depths have increased. With continued cold temperatures some near surface faceting had been observed. With the very strong winds experienced throughout the winter there is a high degree of spatial variability in the distribution of snow and there are still areas of unusually shallow snowpack at all elevations. The lower part of the snowpack appears consolidated and unreactive. Large cornices have also formed above 1800m.

Below 1900m rain last week had saturated the snow pack creating a very stout supportive rain crust. With cold morning temperatures there was a very slick snow surface. With continued cold temperatures and a shallow snow pack some facet development has been observed.

Periods of heavy rain, with snow to 1300 metres until afternoon.

Wind at 1000 metres: Northwesterly 60 km/h, rising to gale 80 km/h at night.

Wind at 2000 metres: Northwesterly gale 80 km/h, rising to severe gale 110 km/h at night.

Wind at 3000 metres: Severe northwesterly gale 90 km/h, rising to severe gale 115 km/h at night.

Freezing level: 1700 metres.

Last week rain fell to 1900m creating a very slick frozen snow surface which with cold temperatures will present a sliding hazard. Take care. An ice axe and crampons could be necessary.

Moderate

• The snowpack structure is well understood.
• We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast.
• We are confident the likelihood of avalanches will increase with the forecast weather.