In favored mountain locations approximately at foot of snow has fallen since Saturday afternoon. Strong southwest winds have loaded the snow onto leeward aspects. Skiers or riders can easily trigger wind slabs today in very steep terrain with depths to two feet above 7500 feet and one foot below that elevation. The chance also continues for older buried weakness to fail and large avalanches could be triggered that are likely to have severe consequences. Evaluate the snowpack to avoid areas of wind loading and make conservative decisions regarding areas where the persistent weak layers remain a concern.
Soft slabs formed by southwest winds could be triggered by humans on steep wind loaded starting zones. These slabs could increase in sensitivity today in areas where they are weakened by periods of direct sunlight and warming temperatures.
New snow and winds have increased the load on persistent weak layers. At higher elevations, slabs could fail on on faceted snow and/or crusts buried by the last storm on February 2nd and have depths of one to three feet. At lower elevations, where the snowpack is shallow and wrought with weak faceted snow, older layers may fail near the ground with depths to two feet.
( Discussion is generated from the previous day's afternoon forecast. )Heavy snowfall and strong southwest winds are expected overnight with another foot of accumulation possible at the upper elevations by 7 am. A break in snowfall is expected during daylight hours with partial clearing likely before another round of snow begins Tuesday night. Temperatures are to be about ten degrees warmer tomorrow with mountains reaching the upper teens. Slabs will continue to increase in size and sensitivity overnight and natural activity is expected at the upper elevations of the Tetons early Tuesday morning where the avalanche danger rating is expected to increase to High. At other elevations of the Tetons and in the other forecast areas the rating is expected to be Considerable. Human triggered wind slabs will be likely and an increased potential to trigger deeper persistent layers will also exist. Conservative decision making in all terrain is a must and steep wind loaded avalanche starting zones should be avoided.
