Olympics

Heavy rain and snow along with warming temperatures Monday night and Tuesday will create very dangerous avalanche conditions which may be focused at upper elevations on Tuesday. Whether you're dealing with storm slabs in dry snow or rain on snow creating wet loose avalanches, avalanches can be large and difficult to escape. Keep your travel simple and avoid all slopes near and above treeline where avalanches can start, stop, or run.

Hurricane Ridge picked up around 8" of snow since the storm started on Sunday night with temperatures hovering just below freezing at 5280 ft. Heavy snow should continue through the evening, but a warming trend overnight into early Tuesday will raise snow levels to around 6000-6500 ft. This will create a widespread natural avalanche cycle where rain falls on recent and still consolidating dry snow, creating very dangerous avalanche conditions. Much of this cycle is expected to occur Monday night. However, if warming is delayed, expect more snowfall near treeline and very dangerous conditions as snow transitions to rain early Tuesday. Above the rain/snow line, large storm slabs around 2 ft thick may be wind-loaded to deeper depths on lee slopes and will be very reactive. As warming continues, denser snow will overload lower-density layers.

The mid and lower snowpack should handle this modest new snow load, so we expect almost all avalanche activity to occur within the most recent snow. Several layers may still exist in the upper snowpack from the prolonged holiday storm cycle and small recent storms. One observation from Mt Ellinor highlights one of these potential layers. In most locations, these weaknesses gained strength over the past few days and don’t pose a general threat.

Near and below treeline you will experience heavy rain on recent snow. New rollerballs indicate the snow surface is becoming wet and unstable.  Natural and human-triggered Wet Loose avalanches can be triggered on steep slopes where you sink in up to your boot tops.

With large quantities of water affecting the snowpack, rock slabs may also produce glide avalanches where running water at the base of the snowpack allows the entire snowpack to break free on a smooth surface. Avoid traveling on or lingering under these terrain features.

A large human-triggered cornice failure on Sunday reminds us that rain could also trim back these cornices. Cornices have a nasty habit of breaking further back than you expect. Avoid exposure on slopes below.

2020-21 Forecast Schedule: Avalanche danger ratings will be issued for the Olympics every Friday through Sunday and during mid-week holidays. During the week when the Hurricane Ridge road is closed, forecast information will be updated daily to include expected conditions and relevant travel advice under the No Rating label.   

During the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, continue to follow the latest guidance from local, state, and federal health officials. Avoid unnecessary risks that could impact first responders and stress medical resources.  Wear a mask when appropriate, practice social distancing, and consider recreating closer to home.