The forecast region is a maze of hard slabs at the moment that will need to be navigated with continued caution. Watch for avalanche danger to increase as a storm moves in later in the weekend.
Hard slabs exist on all aspects and at all elevations at the moment. Hard slabs can be unpredictable and surprising so when traveling on them it can be helpful to think in terms of consequences. Linking one low consequence feature to the next to get to an objective can be a great strategy to avoid a nasty surprise.
It’s still cold for at least one more day. A change in weather is coming later in the weekend.
Friday night: Overcast, chance of isolated flurries, NE wind 30 km/hr gusting 50 km/hr, temperatures dropping to around -38 °C.
Saturday: Clear skies, no new snow. NE wind 30 km/hr gusting 50 km/hr switching to SE late in the day. Treeline temperatures -35 °C.
Sunday: Cloudy, 5-15 cm of new snow, blizzard conditions, winds from south could be up to 100km/hr at higher elevations, treeline temperatures -30 °C.
Monday: Cloudy, 5-10 cm new snow. Winds easing and shifting to N. Temperature rising to -10°C at treeline.
Earlier in the week a natural avalanche cycle occurred in White Pass. This was a result of sustained north winds redistributing the 30-40cm of New Years Eve storm snow. This MIN from Wednesday describes widespread size 2 avalanches, running well into treeline. Avalanches also occurred further inland along the highway corridor on January 4.
We suspect that slopes that did not avalanche during the natural cycle still harbour poorly bonded slabs and remain sensitive to human triggering.
Many days of outflow northerly winds have formed thick hard slabs and firm surfaces on most aspects in all but the most protected pockets. Recently formed wind slabs may remain reactive to human triggers for longer than is typical due to the weak facets (sugary snow) they are sitting on. This is a more persistent problem than normal, given the intense cold temperatures.
Keep an eye out for a change in the weather later in the weekend.
