High freezing levels and intense solar will destabilize the snowpack. This is the first time this winter freezing level will get up to ridgetop elevations.
Natural avalanche activity at all elevations is likely.
The new snow overlays a buried persistent weak layer (PWL) that consists on suncrust, facets and/or surface hoar in some locations. Warm temps are promoting the settling of a cohesive, reactive slab on top of this layer. Expect this slab to become more reactive during times of intense solar.
High freezing levels and rain on snow have all contributed to a weak snowpack at lower elevations. No overnight freeze and direct sun will make this problem more reactive.
Natural activity has tapered off in the park but operations adjacent to the park are still reporting large natural avalanche happening.
Just outside the park, explosive avalanche control produced avalanches up to size 3.5 avalanche on Wednesday with notably wide propagation.
On Tuesday Connaught Creek was busy, with reports of people remote-triggering avalanches to sz 2 on Video Pk, 8812 Bowl, Dispatcher Bowl, and Balu Pass shoulder.
40cm of heavy storm snow sits on a faceted upper snowpack. Widespead wind effect exists in the alpine from previous SW winds.
A weak layer of surface hoar, facets and/or suncrust (Jan 30th) is 50-80cm down. Feb 16 is another PWL(facets/crust/surface hoar) down 30-40cms. Both these layers are reactive to human triggering.
At lower elevations the the snowpack is quite spring-like; thin, moist and facetted with a weak surface crust in the mornings.
A ridge of high pressure is set up over Southeast BC, giving mostly sunny skies and high freezing levels
Tonight Mix cloud & clear. Nil precip. Alp low -3°C. Light ridge winds. Freezing level(FZL) 1300m
Sat Mix of sun/cloud. Alp high +3°C. Light wind. FZL 2000m with a temperature inversion.
Sun Cloudy. Alp high 1°C. Ridge wind light. FZL 1900m.
Mon Mix sun/cloud with flurries. Alp high -4°C. Light wind. FZL 1600m
