Cariboos

Forecasts are based on limited observations. You need to be the detective. Dig down, test weak layers and keep an eye on rising temperatures throughout the weekend.

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

High pressure will dominate though the forecast period. This will bring warming temperatures, rising freezing levels and temperature inversions. Some forecasts suggest alpine temperatures could rise as high as 5 degrees celsius. Ridgetop winds will be light from the West and no significant precipitation is expected.

During the storm earlier this week a widespread natural avalanche cycle in the alpine occurred. Size 2-3 slab avalanches were reported throughout the region. Recently, only smaller size 1-2 avalanches have been reported. However, isolated very large slab avalanches may occur naturally and could be rider triggered, especially in areas that didn't previously avalanche. Check out a rider triggered slab avalanche from the Valmount area earlier this week here. Thanks to Curtis Pawliuk from RideValmount.com for his insights.

Recent storm snow seems to be settling, but wind slab problems do exist. A surface hoar layer exists  60-120 cm down but seems to be spotty, and drainage specific. A bigger concern is a melt-freeze / rain crust that formed early October. This is generally found from 80-180 cm down, and was reactive earlier this week. Sugary facetted crystals have a poor bond above and below the crust. The crust seems to be widespread through the region. Northerly aspects may have a more predominant crust that that might allow for wider propagations and bigger avalanches, especially places that have smooth ground cover (glacier ice, grassy slopes, rock slabs etc.).