The backcountry has been through a wild 24 hrs. If you head into avalanche terrain today you are likely to find one. A day to be very conservative on terrain selection, the snowpack is fragile.
Winds have been a gale strength from the western half. Up to 30 cm of new snow has been redistributed. Entry points from the ridge-line and complex terrain will be scary places. The pack needs to settle, we need to gather more information. A rising freezing level may help us, time will tell. Choose to be conservative. Any event could run a considerable distance and entrench a significant amount of snow.
Sunny aspects may become moist today. The steeper the terrain the more likely you will see activity. Expect this to be minimal, however avoid slopes that lead to terrain traps. Keep well clear of steep sided gullies. Be on the lookout for an increase in things like roller balling.
Given our recent activity (Persistent Slab avalanche triggered on a W asp at 1980m) and minimal backcountry observations. Recent backcountry avalanches cannot be ruled out, fair to say it's been getting hammered out there.
I witnessed a wild day from town yesterday. I saw multiple fronts, fluctuating freezing level and gale strength winds. The current snowpack will reflect this with weak layers, sliding layers and overloading on most aspects. Expect scouring on windward slopes and drifts of up to 2m in lee start zones. Apparently the freezing level is rising to 2000 m today, so perhaps some loose wet activity. North-facing slopes in the afternoon may see some pin wheeling and roller-balling.
Becoming fine this afternoon. Winds from the W at severe gale strength all day. The freezing level lifting to 2000 m after lunch.
The base of the snowpack is certainly slick. You may encounter icy patches on scoured aspects. Add an ice axe and ski/foot crampons to your kit. This will have you prepared for anything you may encounter.
Moderate
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)
